Snow a possibility for Sunday and early next week
Thursday, December 26, 2013
As a weak wave exits the area today, warming should occur through Saturday morning on the mountain slopes as the valleys stay cold in well established temperature inversions.
Another weak and dry wave moves across the area later on Saturday bringing cooler temperatures, but no snow. However, another moister and stronger wave quickly follows and may produce some snow for Sunday. Models originally predicted this wave to our east, but have since trended further west improving our chances for precipitation.
A nice Monday morning before another wave is forecast to begin affecting our area by late Monday. Again, models have trended stronger and further west with this system, and current forecasts have snow starting late Monday as the cool wave approaches in moist northwest flow. Snow may continue Tuesday into Wednesday morning before ridging once again takes hold creating warmer and dry conditions to close out the workweek.
An active weather pattern appears likely to persist, with models tentatively predicting another storm for later in the weekend.
More wind and more wind affected snow
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Temperatures rose through last night until they finally began to fall with frontal passage around 4am. We had a nice burst of snow from around 9am - 10am which dropped a quick 2”, and with that added to this mornings 3” report, the mountain had about 5” of snow from this storm.
The wind picked up during the day, forcing temporary lift closures for Storm Peak and Morningside. By the time I got up there for my afternoon of skiing, the wind had died down and the sun even made an appearance for my last couple of runs. The snow in the upper half of the Priest Creek area was very wind affected and more difficult skiing than the day before, but areas at lower elevation like parts of Lower Shadows and the Rolex trees did not see as much wind and skied very well. There are even pockets of deep untracked snow hiding about.
Good skiing on the lower mountain as well as it wasn’t as windy down there. Generally soft snow everywhere on the hill, with wind affected powder on the firm side. I took Lower Vagabond down for a ride up Thunderhead at the end of the day, and that groomer was skiing great. Even Heavenly Daze had soft carveable snow.
Far more sun than snow looks to be on tap for the remainder of the year, but the skiing is great right now!
Snow ends this evening with dry weather to follow
The well advertised wave moving through northwest flow did not begin to affect our area till around 4am this morning. We had a burst of snowfall between around 9-10am that was falling at several inches per hour, and another band looks to cross the area later this afternoon. The snow that fell earlier was relatively dense, and with some round graupel particles mixed in, the snow should fill in the tracks on the hill nicely. Temperatures should be falling through the day and hopefully we can get some accumulating snow crystals called dendrites to add a layer of light and fluffy powder for later today. I expect outstanding skiing on the hill today as the storm passes through.
If skies clear tonight, it could be a chilly start to the day tomorrow, although it should be a brilliantly sunny day. A dry wave passes Thursday and that may knock temperatures down a few degrees before they rebound to produce unseasonably warm weather by Friday. Valleys will likely stay cool as temperature inversions reform and persist over the the fresh snowpack.
Another weak wave to our north that grazes the area on Saturday will create more seasonable temperatures that look to last into and possibly through the next work week. Models are struggling with the forecast for the following weekend as one flattens the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska possibly leading to some weather for our area while another rebuilds the ridge and keeps us dry.
Upside-down surprise
Monday, December 23, 2013
Only 5” of the reported 13.5” at mid-mountain fell overnight, but the skiing was so good the day before that I was up early for first tracks. The temperatures had warmed about 5F from the day before, and the snow under the Sundown lift was wind-affected, with the beginnings of a wind slab forming. The wind had even gotten into the trees, though far less than the open slopes.
I headed for the wind-sheltered spots that skied the best. I measured a foot, although half of that was transported by the wind. I could definitely feel the denser snow on top of yesterdays very light powder. Since storms usually start out warm and end cold, the snow usually becomes lighter as the storm progresses leading to sublime powder skiing. Upside-down snow, conversely, has a dense layer of snow sitting atop a light layer, and it makes the snow inconsistent and difficult to ski. Wider skis and snowboards tend to fair better in these conditions as the wider surface underfoot keeps the rider in the denser snow layer and out of the lighter snow.
Areas that seemed least wind affected were Closet, the lower half of Shadows and Lower Shadows and the trees around Rolex. My last run was up Morningside to check out the East Face and the Second Pitch. The snow stake at the top read 66”, which is an actual 60” of base.
Final wave in this storm cycle passes early Tuesday for more snow
It looks like we are going to add to our 2 foot storm total as the final wave affects our area beginning after midnight. This wave is relatively quick moving, but it is moist and cool and in northwest flow. We sometimes get more snowfall than expected with this setup, and optimistically I see another 5-10” on the hill by tomorrow afternoon. I would expect some Steamboat Magic to occur between report time at 5am and ski time around 9am creating several hours of heavy snowfall rates.
We may see some sun in the valley by tomorrow afternoon as snow showers on the hill wind down, and if skies clear Tuesday night, Christmas day will start sunny and cool. A weak wave passes by on Thursday, but that likely won’t even affect our sunny skies that are forecast to persist into the weekend. A wave in northwest flow is currently forecast to produce some snow showers by Saturday afternoon, but the eventual westward extent of this wave will determine how much snow we receive.
Skies clear after the weekend disturbance passes, so the beginning of the work week should start out nice before another wave in northwest flow is forecast to affect us as early as Tuesday.
