Tuesday to be the warmest and driest day of the workweek
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Temperatures are in the comfortable mid-seventies under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. We should see a pleasant day today with showers holding off until mid-evening before becoming more sporadic overnight. Storm chances will hang around on Monday before taking a break on Tuesday, resuming on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the work week.
A ridge of high pressure over the Rockies is sandwiched between areas of low pressure centered just off the Pacific Northwest coast and the Ohio River Valley. Monsoonal moisture has been carried over our area from the south thanks to the southerly winds on the backside of the clockwise circulation around the high, with only some light and scattered showers around town starting late yesterday afternoon.
A well-defined wave rotating around the high is currently entering Utah and will be over our area around mid-evening. So look for dry skies this afternoon with high temperatures in the low-eighties, right around our falling average of 81 F, before the showers associated with the wave start this mid-evening and become more sporadic after midnight.
More thunderstorms are possible on Monday after noon, though short-range models currently have the best activity just to our south. A downturn in storm activity is expected on Tuesday as the southern end of the ridge briefly squirts westward thanks to the strengthening of the Ohio River Valley low pressure area, temporarily severing the tap of monsoonal moisture. Look for low storm chances with plenty of sun and high temperatures a few degrees above average.
Meanwhile, a strong storm over the Bering Sea has incorporated some cold air from the North Pole, and will split as it moves across the Gulf of Alaska early in the week. The southern end of the storm is forecast to drop along the British Columbia coast through midweek which will dislodge the existing low pressure area over the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and nudge the high pressure ridge back to the east.
Monsoonal moisture will once again be carried overhead in the southerly winds on the backside of the high pressure, and will conspire with the southern end of the northeastward-moving Pacific Northwest storm to create good chances of strong storms by Wednesday afternoon and continuing overnight.
Trailing energy will keep the storm chances around through at least Thursday and Friday as temperatures cool into the mid-seventies.
There is weather forecast model uncertainty for the weekend related to how strong the British Columbia storm will be and how quickly it moves east and toward our area. A faster storm will clear the moisture from our area early in the weekend while a slower storm may allow the moisture and storm chances to stick around on Saturday. In any event, the storm looks strong enough to bring the first fall-like cool front through our area sometime next weekend.
So enjoy the summery start to the work week, keep your Gore-Tex handy for the showers starting midweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our first fall-like cool front of the season.
Back to normal summer weather for the weekend
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Temperatures are approaching the mid-seventies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies after a cool forty-degree start to the day. The rains could not stay away today as a mid-morning shower made it seven days in a row with rain, and eight days out of the last nine. But normal summer weather returns for the weekend as temperatures rise into the eighties, and a dry Friday will be followed by another surge of monsoonal moisture for the second half of the weekend.
We were a few hundredths below the average of 0.7” through last weekend for the first ten days of August, and the estimated three-quarters of an inch of rain since then should put us well on the way to the August average of 1.8”. This is good news since July was short of the average 1.72” by about two-thirds of an inch.
Another strong storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to be off the northern California coast by Saturday. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West ahead of the storm, and after a chance for some passing showers this afternoon thanks to lingering moisture, we should see a sunny, dry and very pleasant Friday with temperatures right at our average of 82 F.
As the Gulf of Alaska storm approaches the northern California coast, the ridge of high pressure will be nudged to the east, allowing more monsoonal moisture to be pulled toward our area from the south on the backside of the ridge. The high temperature on Saturday should rise toward 85 F before chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms return, with better chances on Sunday as high temperatures first cool back to average and Monday as high temperatures cool further toward eighty degrees.
Our weather for the rest of the week will be determined by how the storm off the northern coast of California interacts with the ridge of high pressure, and whether the ridge stays far enough east to continue the flow of monsoonal moisture or moves far enough west to sever the monsoonal connection.
So enjoy the pleasant start to the weekend, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on how long the monsoonal moisture may stick around.
Good rain chances and cool weather to continue through midweek
Sunday, August 11, 2024
After some rain early this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs, skies briefly cleared before clouding over again this mid-afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies. Good storm chances with high temperatures only in the mid to low-seventies will remain with us through midweek before temperatures return to around eighty degrees under drier skies starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.
A flat ridge of high pressure still over the southern U.S. is bounded to the north by a seasonably active jet stream extending across the northern U.S. and anchored by troughs of low pressure over the West Coast and the Great Lakes. Monsoonal moisture first carried northward into Utah has approached us from the west and conspired with ripples of energy moving through the jet stream to create the cool weather and thunderstorms that have left between a third and half inch of rain across town since Friday.
The average high temperature is 82 F this week, and we will stay between five and ten degrees below average through Wednesday as good storm chances continue through both the day and night in the cool air under the jet stream. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coolest days of the week with high temperatures struggling to reach the mid-seventies, with Tuesday likely the wettest day of the week before we see a final round of storms Wednesday afternoon and overnight as the West Coast trough moves through the northern Rockies and drags a cool front through our area.
That front will temporarily sweep the monsoonal moisture to the east as a building ridge of high pressure behind the cool front brings drier skies and warming temperatures by Thursday, with high temperatures returning to near eighty degrees by Friday and continuing into the weekend. Weather forecast models often are too eager to dry the atmosphere after a monsoonal surge, so low storm chances may persist even as we see lots of sunshine.
Another storm is forecast to replace the departed West Coast storm by the weekend, and we may see a return of monsoonal moisture later next weekend as winds turn to be from the south and southwest ahead of the storm. So enjoy the cool and sometimes stormy start to the workweek, look forward to the nice summer days to end the workweek, and check back for the weekend details in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures to cool with good rain chances lasting through the weekend
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Clouds have invaded the Steamboat Springs area early this Thursday afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies. These clouds herald the arrival of monsoonal moisture which will keep high temperatures around eighty degrees and allow for good rain chances through the weekend and into the following workweek.
The jet stream is currently oriented over the northern two-thirds of the U.S., separating cool air centered over the upper Midwest from a flat ridge of hot high pressure over the southern half of the country, save for the remnants of Tropical Storm Debbie currently over the Carolinas. Luckily, the high temperatures of 92 F over last weekend, which on Saturday was one degree shy of the record 93 F set in 2000, have been replaced by cooler air under the jet stream with high temperatures near eighty degrees forecast through the week, comfortably below our average of 83 F.
Additionally, monsoonal moisture rotating around the high pressure cell over the Southwest has approached us from the west. Modest rain chances will start later today and possibly Friday, but become likely through the weekend and into next week. Rain chances on Friday are uncertain thanks to a pocket of dry air currently centered over the Great Salt Lake that may or may not be close enough to reduce the chance of storms.
The proximity of the jet stream will allow ripples in the flow to interact with the monsoonal moisture, encouraging storms even at night. Any storm may produce brief moderate to heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.
Lastly, the NOAA Smoke Plume Model shows smoke from California wildfires in and out of our area over at least the next 48 hours which may affect air quality. That model is updated four times a day, so make your own forecasts through the weekend by clicking the View All button and then checking the Animate checkbox at the top of the map screen.
Enjoy the cooler weekend, hope for the rains to come and the smoke to stay away, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for details on how long this monsoonal moisture surge may last.
Workweek to see modest shower chances with temperatures to peak near ninety degrees on Tuesday
Sunday, August 4, 2024
After a relatively cool morning with occasional sprinkles, temperatures are only in the mid-seventies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under recently cleared and mostly sunny skies. Modest shower chances reappear later today and continue through the work week along with hot temperatures peaking near ninety degrees on a dry Tuesday. But there is hope for a cooler and wetter weather pattern starting around Thursday and continuing through next weekend.
Those infernal easterly winds I talked about in the last weather narrative did appear at the top and near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort last night, as shown by the accompanying temperature and wind charts from the SnowAlarm weather station and the Storm Peak Laboratory near the top of Mt. Werner
Wind direction is indicated by the red dots in the second chart, with winds having an easterly component denoted in the lower half of the chart and winds with a westerly component in the upper half. The vertical gray line in the center of both upper charts marks 12:05 am on August 4th.
Infernal, since temperatures rose from 69 F to 80 F in about twenty minutes starting at 9:30 pm and stayed elevated until just before 2 am thanks to the gusty easterly winds warming as they descended the Park Range. Interestingly, the Bob Adams airport was spared and downtown showed only about five degrees of warming. Fortunately, no smoke from the Front Range wildfires was carried over our area.
A ridge of high pressure currently over most of the U.S. has been flattened by a series of cool waves moving across Canada, but those waves will not be close enough to moderate the hot temperatures forecast for our area through midweek. The sun today will allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper eighties, about five degrees above our now slowly falling daily average, and cook the atmosphere, returning modest shower chances later this afternoon and evening.
A degree of warming is forecast for Monday with afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances persisting, along with another bout of nighttime easterly winds advertised by some weather forecast models. Another degree of warming should bring high temperatures to around ninety degrees on Tuesday as winds shift from the southwest to the west thanks to the Canadian waves. These westerly winds look to bring dry air overhead and reduce or eliminate showers for the day.
But moisture returns by Wednesday as some energy left behind by the Canadian waves merges with some energy ejecting from a strong series of storms over the Aleutian Islands and begins to dig southward along the West Coast. Temperatures will see a degree or two of cooling with later-day shower chances.
Cool air associated with the Canadian waves begins infiltrating our area by Thursday for high temperatures in the mid-eighties and a better chance of storms. Monsoonal moisture is reinforced starting Friday as the developing West Coast trough of low pressure nudges the western ridge of high pressure eastward, with temperatures cooling to average on Friday with good chances for storms.
Longer-range weather forecast models have even cooler and unsettled weather persisting through the weekend and into the beginning of the next workweek. Enjoy another very summery start to this week, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the coming moisture.
