Winds pick up ahead of mostly dry cold front Tuesday night
Sunday, October 9, 2022
Another spectacular fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties. Similar weather is expected for Columbus Day, but with afternoon breezes from the west, before a mostly dry cold front is forecast Tuesday night. Look for winds to increase during the day with a small chance of rain showers at the lower elevations and snow showers at the higher elevations in the afternoon and evening before the atmosphere quickly dries after midnight behind the cold front. More sunny weather with seasonable temperatures is forecast for the rest of the work week.
As has been the case recently, two deep and cold areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific and Hudson Bay sandwich a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. A wave of energy currently moving through the Aleutian Islands is forecast to cross the British Columbia coast Monday afternoon before moving through Idaho on Tuesday and bringing a cold front through our area Tuesday evening.
While tomorrow will be similar to today, but with some breezes from the west, the winds will pick up on Tuesday with gusts over 30 mph by the afternoon as we see meager chances for rain shower below 10,000′ and snow showers above in the afternoon and evening. The snow level will drop during the evening and reach as low as 8000′ by Wednesday morning, though the atmosphere quickly dries behind the front so no precipitation is expected after midnight. There may be snowflakes in the evening as low as mid-mountain, which you can monitor at the Steamboat mid-mountain powdercam, though accumulations at all elevations currently look unlikely.
The ridge of high pressure over the West Coast quickly rebuilds behind the departing storm, so look for lots of sun and seasonable temperatures within five degrees of our average high of 61 F and average low of 28 F through the rest of the work week.
The weather forecast models agree that dry weather will persist into next weekend, though we may be susceptible to a grazing cool front as waves of energy travel down the east side of the ridge of high pressure. So enjoy the mostly sunny days and cool nights, except for the brief interruption in our stellar weather on Tuesday, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Brilliant fall days ahead
Thursday, October 6, 2022
A spectacular fall day with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday afternoon. More warm sunny days and crisp clear nights are forecast through the long Columbus Day weekend which will provide excellent viewing of the late-arriving but still vibrant fall colors around north central Colorado.
A ridge of high pressure over the West Coast is currently sandwiched between two large areas of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay. Additionally, an eddy has cut off from our past weekend storm and taken up residence over Baja with no effect on our weather.
The dry air associated with the ridge of high pressure is bringing lots of sunshine which is allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid and upper sixties today, about five degrees above our average of 63 F. The clear skies will also allow for cool morning low temperatures right around our average of 28 F.
A wave traveling down the east side of the ridge looks to bring a cool front to the Front Range on Friday, though current forecasts have most of the cold air staying east of the Divide, so similar weather is forecast for our area tomorrow, with temperatures cooling by several degrees.
A dry wave ejected from the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to move through the ridge of high pressure and drop south along the West Coast on Sunday. The wave is forecast to eject that Baja eddy northeastward across New Mexico early in the work week while taking its place, though both of those features will be too far away to affect our weather through early next week.
So continued warm days and cool nights are forecast through Sunday and Columbus Day before there may be a pattern change for our area around midweek, thanks to some Pacific energy traveling through the Aleutian Islands and the northern Gulf of Alaska. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on how much of that energy and cool air we eventually see, with hopes for a significant storm for our area fading the last several cycles of the weather forecast models. So enjoy a spectacular weekend of quintessential Colorado fall weather and color, and I’ll have be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Shower chances persist today and Monday before a dry work week
Sunday, October 2, 2022
After some light rain around sunrise, a mix of sun and clouds is over the Steamboat Springs area with temperatures around fifty degrees this Sunday mid-morning, on their way to the mid-sixties. But the sun will heat the unstable atmosphere so showers will persist today and this evening. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday with less of a chance of showers before dry weather and seasonable temperatures dominate most of the rest of the work week.
The recent wet weather which brought about a half inch of rain to the area on Friday and another fifteen hundredths yesterday is being caused by waves of energy pinwheeling around a slow-moving eddy currently over Montana. 
This also produced a brief period of quickly-melting snowfall at the top of Sunshine Peak as shown by a snapshot from the Steamboat Powdercam taken at 11 am Saturday morning. Most of the eddy is forecast to rejoin the jet stream later Monday, but not before bringing several more rounds of showers to our area later today and this evening.
Cooler air behind the departing storm will overspread the area on Monday with high temperatures in the low sixties, a couple degrees below our average of 64 F. While we will still see the chance of showers on Monday, they should be less widespread than the last several days.
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West behind the bulk of the departing storm as southerly winds ahead of a deep area of low pressure extending southward from the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska bring warm air northward. A small piece of the departing storm is forecast to be left behind and migrate to the Desert Southwest during the work week, and that may be a player in our weather for next weekend.
Otherwise, look for mostly sunny skies starting Tuesday and lasting through most of the work week with high temperatures in the mid-sixties and low temperatures around our average of 29 F. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll discuss a grazing cold front on Friday and the possible return of subtropical moisture for around next weekend.
Soggy start to the weekend
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Temperatures have dropped from the upper sixties earlier this Thursday afternoon to around sixty degrees late this afternoon as several rounds of showers passed through the Steamboat Springs area. This is in advance of a cold front expected Friday morning that will be accompanied by widespread showers and periods of steady rain that will last through the day and into Saturday morning, with some snow above treeline. While Friday will see the bulk of the accumulating moisture, showers may continue through Saturday and possibly on Sunday depending upon the path of the approaching storm.
While Hurricane Ian is affecting the Southeast, an area of low pressure currently crossing the Pacific Northwest is forecast to form an eddy over Idaho tomorrow that will wobble around for a couple of days before eventually moving into Montana and rejoining the jet stream. Our weather will be very dependent upon the wobbles of the eddy and how quickly dry air on the backside of the storm makes it into our neck of the woods.
Unfortunately this makes for an uncertain forecast for even just two days ahead, though most of the accumulating precipitation looks to occur from Friday night into Saturday morning. High temperatures will certainly fall from what we enjoyed the last several days into the mid-sixties which is right at our average of 66 F. Low temperatures on the other hand will be elevated due to the insulating effects of cloud cover and will stay above our average of 30 F.
The movement of the eddy may be dependent upon the eventual track of the remains of Ian which is expected to turn inland toward the Ohio River Valley by mid-weekend, but the track of hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable. So I would say be prepared for unsettled weather this weekend that likely extends into Monday, but keep an eye outside and on the local satellite and radar movies from SnowAlarm to make your outdoor plans.
It does look like the weather warms and dries for most of the following work week, but be sure to check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll discuss that forecast in more detail.
Spectacular fall weather continues through midweek
Sunday, September 25, 2022
Another gorgeous fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area with cloudless skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties early this Sunday afternoon, on their way to the seventies. More of the same is expected through midweek before moisture increases and shower chances return on Thursday ahead of a Pacific weather disturbance currently forecast for the end of the work week.
An expansive ridge of high pressure currently over the West is sandwiched between two impressively deep and cold low pressure areas with one extending southward through the Aleutian Islands and another southward through Hudson Bay. And not that it will affect our weather, but Tropical Storm Ian currently south of western Cuba is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday and make landfall as a strong storm somewhere around the eastern Gulf Coast or Florida after midweek.
The Aleutian storm is forecast to move eastward early in the work week and split as the southern end moves through the Pacific Northwest around midweek. We will eventually see the influence of the southern piece of the storm, but not before several more spectacular fall days grace our area on Monday and Tuesday, and likely Wednesday, with high temperatures in the mid-seventies, over five degrees above our average of 69 F and low temperatures around or above freezing, a bit above our average low of 31 F.
There is weather forecast model disagreement on how much energy is partitioned into the Pacific Northwest storm and how much moves eastward across Canada, but they agree that the southerly flow ahead of the storm will combine with the clockwise circulation around the high pressure to increase moisture over our area by later Wednesday and Thursday in a monsoon-like pattern. So there should be some chance of showers on Thursday ahead of a better chance on Friday when the cold front is expected to pass through.
The weekend forecast is very uncertain as the European ECMWF forecasts the storm to shear and keeps unsettled weather around, while the American GFS quickly moves the storm through the area for a nice weekend. So check back on Thursday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative when these differences should be resolved in time for a more certain weekend weather forecast.
