Storms for later today, Friday and next week
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
A well-defined but quick moving wave will allow periods of moderate snowfall to develop late this afternoon and last through the evening. Snows will lighten and turn showery around midnight, but continue into the early morning hours before ending. I expect 4-8” of snow by Wednesday morning before skies mostly clear and temperatures warm for later Wednesday and Thursday.
Another stronger and more organized wave creates heavy precipitation starting along the northwest coast Wednesday and affects our area by Thursday night. However, current model forecasts have this wave splitting as it moves over our area, and model trends indicate the bulk of the storm may pass west and then south of us. Nonetheless, precipitation will begin early Friday and last through Saturday, but due to the splitting flow, I might expect only 3-6” during Friday which will be reported Saturday morning. An additional 1-3” may fall during the day Saturday before a transient ridge containing warm and dry air moves over our area for Sunday.
Another very similar storm may affect our area early the following week, though this one may have more cold air associated with it as it phases with another wave from the north rotating around the ever-present-for-this-winter Hudson Bay vortex. This storm currently is forecast to produce significant precipitation for our area from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, though that forecast is dependent upon the amount of splitting the storm endures as it moves over our area.
Storms for Tuesday and Friday
Monday, March 3, 2014
A small wave in northwest flow moved over our area this morning with insignificant precipitation, and I expect periods of sun today, though some light showers may persist, especially on the hill. However, a stronger but quick moving wave will allow periods of moderate snowfall to develop tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Showers will continue past midnight into the early morning hours, though they weaken and eventually end early in the day. I expect 5-10” of snow by Wednesday morning before skies mostly clear for later Wednesday and Thursday.
Another stronger and more organized wave crosses the northwestern coast late Wednesday and affects our area by Thursday night. Current model forecasts have this wave splitting as it moves over our area, but I would still expect significant accumulations between Thursday night and midday Friday, perhaps in the 6-12” range. Additional energy behind the main wave will keep lighter snow for our area going through Saturday before a transient ridge containing warm and dry air moves over our area for the second half of the weekend.
Another similar storm may affect our area early the following week, though this one may have more cold air associated with it as it phases with another wave from the north rotating around the ever-present-for-this-winter Hudson Bay vortex. Current longer-range models disagree with the details of this storm, which is to be expected with its impacts over a week away.
Storm disappoints this weekend, but more chances ahead
Saturday, March 1, 2014
The storm was just a bit too far east of us today to produce more than this morning’s rain in the valley and 2.5” mid / 3” top. In fact, it was a mostly sunny, but windy day as dry air right on the edge of the storm moved over us today.
As the storm moves eastward from southern California overnight and into tomorrow, current model trends have kept this storm further south, decreasing our impacts. We still have some cool air aloft tonight and through tomorrow. so I may expect 3-6” by tomorrow morning (with some of that falling this morning) with an additional 1-4” during the day tomorrow in continued showers.
Showers will diminish, but not completely end on Monday as additional weak waves in northwest flow travel over our area, and these continue but grow weaker on Tuesday. However, by Tuesday night some models show a more substantial but still quick-moving wave that may produce some significant snow for Wednesday morning.
A quick warm up with mostly sunny skies is forecast for later Wednesday into Thursday morning before another storm is forecast for late Thursday or Friday.
Snow lasts through much of the weekend
Friday, February 28, 2014
The Steamboat ski area reported 6” mid / 9” top this morning, though I found that 9” report suspect since it was not supported by either the visual evidence from the powder cam nor the measurements I made in the Priest Creek area this morning. Nonetheless, the 7 or 8” that I DID measure in the favored locations skied great this morning, as this high quality snow was dense enough to mostly separate the skier from the hard surface underneath.
Snow has currently ended with periods of sun, but the break will be short-lived as the second storm just off the central California coast backs the winds to the southwest and spreads clouds and then precipitation over our area this evening. Even though southwest flow is not very favorable for our area, both the cooling aloft this evening and proximity of surface front may allow for moderate to heavy precipitation rates, especially during the day Saturday. And because the storm does not have much cold air associated with it, the precipitation is likely to be rain or mixed in the valleys and the lowest 500 - 1000′ of the hill, with increasingly higher quality snow as elevation increases.
I might expect 2-5” by Saturday morning, and another 4-8” by Sunday morning as the heaviest snow continues through the daylight hours Saturday, but wanes toward sunset and might even stop by midnight as the main part of the storm swings south and east of us. However, some models have northwest flow continuing through much of Sunday, possibly producing another 3-6” by sunset.
Pieces of energy in the favorable northwest flow will keep showers going through midweek, and some drying is currently forecast later in the workweek before another possibly significant storm approaches our area around Friday.
Warm snow starting late Thursday begins new storm cycle
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Two storms undercutting the west coast ridge will influence our weather from Thursday through the beginning of next week. We received another big fat zero inches of snow last night, even as areas to our south received a couple of inches. I’m surprised we could not generate any lasting precipitation when the storm moved through just before sunset, but dry air quickly moved in and shut down the precipitation.
The first storm will bring clouds into our area by tomorrow, and precipitation may start as early as the afternoon. Though the winds are initially westerly, they veer to the northwest around midnight, and I expect our best snow will wait until then. I would expect 3-6” of heavy snow by Friday morning with an additional 3-6” during the morning hours and early afternoon, which will be reported Saturday morning. Precipitation will likely start as rain in the valleys before changing over to very wet snow later in the evening.
Snow will diminish or even end later Friday as a small ridge moves over our area between the two storms. Clouds will quickly increase again by midnight Friday as a far stronger storm situated around central California spreads warm temperatures and moisture over our area. I don’t believe we will get significant precipitation until we get a bit of cooling associated with some energy ejecting from the storm Saturday morning.
While these storm are progressing eastward, a very cold wave rotating around the persistent Hudson Bay vortex moves first over the Washington / Oregon region before it begins sliding east. As mentioned in the previous blog, the amount of cold air, if any, that interacts with the warm southern storm will greatly influence our weather. At this time, it appears most of the cold air will remain to our north and east and any interactions will be minimized, as forecast by the European model several days ago. Still plenty of time for that to change, though!
Current forecasts have this impressively wet storm staying to our south, likely bringing the heaviest precipitation to southern Colorado and New Mexico, though central Colorado will also receive significant accumulations. I expect less precipitation over our area, though these southwestern storm can sometimes surprise, especially if there is a convective component where cooler air aloft destabilizes the atmosphere and increases upward motion (similar to bubbles rising in a pot of heated water, though the rising motion in the pot is caused by heating the bottom of the pot as opposed to cooling the top of the pot).
The flow does turn to the northwest after the storm passes by Sunday afternoon, and showers from this storm are likely to continue through Tuesday. Any breaks in precipitation look to be short-lived as a wave traveling over a transient ridge building over our area brings upward motion, cooling and the chance for more showers on Wednesday.
Longer term, I see continued storminess at least through mid-March as the Hudson Bay vortex continues to torment the east and Midwest with cold and stormy weather while the west continues to experience relatively warm and wet storms from the Pacific.
