Midweek storm trending stronger
Monday, November 9, 2015
A splitting storm is currently located over the Pacific Northwest and will move across the Great Basin on Tuesday. While this was advertised in last week’s forecast, models are now placing most of the emphasis on the southern part of the storm, which looks to produce another round of moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall for the Steamboat Springs area.
After another pleasant day today, temperatures should be cooler tomorrow before showers begin in the late afternoon or evening. There should be a burst of heavy snow when the cold front passes around midnight Tuesday, and continuing moderate to sometimes heavy snow in windy conditions overnight as the atmosphere destabilizes in cold northwest flow. There may be as much as 6-12” on the hill by Wednesday morning and around half of that in the valley.
The snowfall rates will decrease and snow will become more showery during the day Wednesday as the storm moves eastward, though snowfall may increase a bit early Thursday as a trailing wave keeps cold air and instability over the Steamboat Springs area. These snow showers should end by Thursday afternoon, but not before leaving another 2-5” of snow on the hill by then.
Temperatures will start cold on Friday morning, but there should be some warming during the day, especially at the higher elevations as the Steamboat Springs valley may stay cool as the usual wintertime temperature inversion form.
Beautiful weather looks to be on tap for the weekend and possibly the early part of next week before another Pacific storm is forecast to make landfall around Monday.
Warming and drying for the weekend before a splitting storm approaches early next week
Friday, November 6, 2015
I had about 5” of snow on my deck this morning, and the powdercam at the top of the Steamboat Ski area is currently showing about 15” of storm snow with about 6” of that occurring between yesterday evening and this morning. Temperatures will stay cool today even as the snow tapers off on the hill and peeks of sun appear in the valley this afternoon.
After a chilly start Saturday morning, temperatures will begin to warm under clear and sunny skies, though still staying seasonably cool through the end of the day. Sunday morning will also start cool, but should eventually be warmer than Saturday as the center of a transient ridge moves over the Steamboat Springs area.
By Sunday, another strong Pacific storm brings more cold air and precipitation to the northwest coast and northern California as it moves eastward. Current model timing has the pleasant weekend weather lasting through Monday before showers are forecast beginning Tuesday. Unlike this past storm, models are forecasting that this storm will split as it crosses the Great Basin which may minimize the snowfall over northern Colorado. At the very least, temperatures will drop by Wednesday as the northern part of the split storm drags some cool air over our area.
Another shallow wave in the jet stream passes north of our area around Thursday, keeping the cool temperatures around for Friday as well. Current model forecasts have another round of warming and drying for the following weekend.
Storm lasts through Friday before warming and drying returns for the weekend
Thursday, November 5, 2015
I had about 2.5” of snow on my deck this morning, and the powdercam at the top of the Steamboat Ski area is currently showing about 8” of snow with a temperature of 12F. Weather will remain cloudy and cool today before a trailing wave brings another round of colder air and snow starting tonight and lasting through midday Friday, leaving an additional 3-6” on the hill and an inch or two down in the valley.
After a chilly start Saturday morning, temperatures will begin to warm under clear and sunny skies, though still staying seasonably cool through the end of the day. Sunday morning will also start cool, but should eventually be warmer than Saturday as the center of a transient ridge moves over the Steamboat Springs area.
By Sunday, another strong Pacific storm brings more cold air and precipitation to the northwest coast and northern California as it moves eastward. Current model timing has the pleasant weekend weather lasting through Monday before showers are forecast beginning Tuesday. There is model disagreement as to how fast this system moves through the area, but this is another cold storm that will produce snow Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday as well.
Storm arrival delayed until later Tuesday
Sunday, November 1, 2015
The storm advertised in the last forecast has trended slower in the models, and now is not expected to arrive until later Tuesday. The wet-weather forecast for Monday and Tuesday has now been replaced by breezy, dry and warm temperatures, with showers likely holding off till later Tuesday.
As before, the lead wave forecast to cross the area, now on Tuesday, will not have much cold air, keeping the initial surge of precipitation as rain in the valley and snow at the higher elevations, with maybe 1-4” at the top of Mt. Werner. By Wednesday, however, cold air infiltrates the area and lowers snow levels, with snow likely accumulating on the valley bottom by the end of the day Wednesday.
The mountain-top winds turn from the southwest to the northwest Wednesday evening, which should increase the snowfall rates, especially on the hill. I expect 3-6” of snow by Thursday evening at the Steamboat Ski area and maybe an inch or two in town.
There is a small break Thursday night before another wave in northwest flow brings more snow and additional colder air for Friday, perhaps leaving another inch or so in town and an additional 3-6” on the hill.
The weather is forecast to clear for Saturday, and after a chilly start, temperatures will moderate, especially later in the weekend. Seasonable temperatures with dry weather will last through Monday before the next storm threatens the Steamboat Springs area around Tuesday or Wednesday.
Quick moving storm around Friday followed by large complex slow moving storm next week
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
The active jet stream advertised in last week’s forecast will continue to affect the Steamboat Springs area late Thursday into Friday with a quick moving storm, followed by a large, complex and slow moving storm starting around Monday and lasting through much of the next work week.
A wave currently crossing the West Coast will split as it crosses the Great Basin, keeping most of the precipitation to our south. Some cool air from the the northern part of the split will be reinforced by additional energy moving across the Pacific, but overall the winds never turn to our favorable northwest direction, limiting the cold air and overall precipitation. The end result is showers should begin Thursday afternoon or evening and leave 1-4” of snow on the upper part of the hill by noon Friday, with lesser amounts at lower elevations and rain in the valleys.
Drier weather with average temperatures will return after this storm passes from Friday afternoon through the weekend, with perhaps breezy conditions at times.
However, this break will end by Monday morning as a large storm forecast to be off the Northwest Coast by Sunday afternoon moves south and east, reinforced by a number of upstream waves crossing the Pacific. Some of these waves will be be ejected out of the parent storm, forecast to be located around mid-California by Monday, and move over our area, with the first wave forecast by early Monday morning.
Currently, models forecast most of the precipitation to fall as rain in the valley bottom as a relatively stationary front settles over our area, but likely significant snow at the higher elevations for Monday and most of Tuesday. However, it looks like Steamboat Springs will be right on the edge of the rain-snow elevation, and precipitation may switch to snow during the overnight hours before changing back to rain during the day.
A large piece of energy is forecast to move along this front by Tuesday night, likely keeping precipitation as snow along the valley bottom by Wednesday. Continued precipitation is expected for Thursday and possibly Friday as this storm eventually moves eastward and likely south of our area, but the complexity evident early in week greatly reduces forecast confidence beyond midweek.
