Another miss from incoming storm
Sunday, April 21, 2019
Skies have cleared this Easter Sunday afternoon after a line of light showers passed through Steamboat Springs earlier in the day. Monday will see another good chance of afternoon showers before the weather turns much quieter for the rest of the work week and the following weekend.
Currently, the southern portion of a split storm is spinning west of our area in the Great Basin. Some energy and moisture that ejected out ahead of the storm passed over our area earlier in the afternoon and was responsible for some light showers.
The northern part of the split storm will drag a cool front through some of Colorado tonight and tomorrow, though the southwest flow ahead of the storm to our west is limiting its effects to areas east of us. We may have another round of showers later today, and again Monday afternoon as the storm sinks to our southwest before moving eastward across the Mexican border, but significant weather will be limited to southern Colorado and areas south.
The weather turns quiet and seasonably warm with high temperatures above our average of 55 F behind the storm as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West. Several weak storms will travel across the northern U.S. from Wednesday through Friday, and we may see brief cooling and afternoon showers if the storms are close enough to graze our area.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to strengthen a bit for the first half of the weekend which will reduce the threat of showers. Meanwhile, a warm Pacific storm is forecast to approach and cross the West Coast at some point during the weekend, though weather forecast models disagree on the timing. Shower chances will increase when this storm moves near our area later in the weekend or early next week.
Warm and dry ahead of early week storm
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Skies have cleared in the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday afternoon behind the underwhelming midweek storm. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the first part of the weekend before a couple of approaching storms begin precipitation chances as soon as later Saturday. Precipitation chances will persist through at least Monday, with warming and drying eventually expected around midweek after the second storm passes.
The past storm split even more severely than I thought in my previous forecast which kept the precipitation well north and south of our area. Looking ahead, a ridge of high pressure over the west will move over our area starting tonight and bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures to the Yampa Valley, with high temperatures on Friday and Saturday expected to be five to fifteen degrees above our average high of 54 F.
A couple of storms will affect our area starting around mid-weekend. The first storm was part of an earlier storm that was left off the coast of southern California, and this will be nudged toward our area on Saturday night by a stronger incoming Pacific storm. The storm is warm and weak, and any showers that form will likely be rain even at the higher elevations.
There does not appear to be much of a break ahead of the second storm, and the weather will be cooler and more unsettled for most of Easter Sunday ahead of the storm with a good chance of afternoon and overnight showers.
The storm looks to become less organized on Sunday as it elongates southward while crossing the Great Basin. However, at this time it looks to stay strong enough to bring a cold front through our area on Monday, with snowflakes possible in the valley and accumulating snows at the higher elevations.
The storm has trended slower, with weather forecast models disagreeing on the track and timing of the storm. Cool and unsettled weather may stick around for Tuesday, possibly with continued higher elevation snow accumulations in the favorable moist and unstable northwest flow behind the front, but warmer and drier weather is advertised after the storm eventually clears the area.
The warm and dry weather will stick around for part of the following weekend before another Pacific storm may bring more precipitation to our area by Sunday or Monday.
Save your soles! You suspect that the grating and grinding sounds you hear from your ski boots as you walk across hard surfaces can’t be good. In fact, worn boot soles make your binding unsafe as it interferes with the boot-binding interface. Cat Tracks
Closing Day showers followed by another midweek storm
Sunday, April 14, 2019
Sunny skies are gracing the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday morning, which is also Closing Day for the Steamboat Ski Area. We’ll see a good chance of showers today after noon with less of a chance Monday before another strong Pacific storm approaches on Tuesday and brings more significant precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday. Warming and drying are then expected heading into and through the first half of next weekend.
After three remarkable days of mid-winter powder skiing in mid-April, Closing Day will bring a mix of sun, clouds and showers as northern Colorado is clipped by a passing storm to our north. The showers will persist through midnight or so, especially at the higher elevations, where 2-5” of snow could fall that would be reported Monday morning if the ski area was still open.
Monday looks to be a precipitation-free day, though showers just to our north may encroach on our area. Temperatures finally approach our average of 53 F after a stretch of days with high temperatures ten to fifteen degrees below that.
Meanwhile, a strong Pacific storm currently crossing the Gulf of Alaska makes landfall late Monday and starts showers in our area by later Tuesday as it crosses the Great Basin. However, the storm is expected to split Tuesday with the southern end diving toward the Desert Southwest and the northern half racing eastward across the northern Rockies.
Snowfall will pick up behind a cool front Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday as the storm travels eastward along the Colorado/New Mexico border. Another colder Pacific wave of energy and moisture moving over a building ridge of high pressure over the West Coast is forecast to slide down the backside of the Wednesday storm and bring less dense and fluffier snowfall Wednesday night through the day Thursday in favorable cool, moist and unstable north to northwest flow.
By Friday the ridge of high pressure over the West Coast moves inland, bringing drying and significant warming for Friday and Saturday. A weak storm may or may not be close enough to our area for warm showers on Sunday, after which an active spring storm track brings more precipitation back to our area for the following week.
Stop battling cold feet! I’ve used the awesome Hotronic foot warmers from their beginnings, and can honestly say that each iteration of the product is better than the last. I have the S4 custom, attached to my powerstrap so they never fall off, and my toes stay warm for my entire ski day.
Showers continue Friday before decreasing over the weekend
Thursday, April 11, 2019
After a frustratingly tardy snow report at 6:15 am this Thursday morning indicated 4” at mid-mountain and 10” up top, the Steamboat Ski Area reported 9” at mid-mountain and 13” up top on the 1 pm update. The current cold and showery weather is expected to continue through Friday before decreasing and becoming confined to a still cool Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will warm starting Sunday, along with a chance of occasional light showers through Tuesday morning depending on the proximity of a couple of grazing storms. And then another storm, similar to the the current one but not as strong, is advertised to bring first stormy and then unsettled weather to our area beginning around Tuesday and lasting through Thursday.
Reviewing the current storm, not much weather happened through yesterday afternoon, putting Sunday’s snowy forecast in jeopardy. But once the cold air arrived around 5 pm on Wednesday, the powerful storm currently moving across the upper Midwest delivered. Snow showers are expected to continue overnight and through Friday afternoon in the cold and unstable north to northwest flow behind the storm as waves of energy and moisture pass through the area. Several new inches of snow at mid-mountain would be possible overnight and then again during the day Friday.
A still-cool Saturday will offer a break in the shower activity until the afternoon when they may redevelop.
A grazing storm passes north of our area on a Sunday that will see temperatures warm back to near our 51 F average, along with showers that may start by as early as noon and last through Closing Day if the storm is close enough.
Monday looks to be a bit warmer than Sunday with less of a chance of showers before another Pacific storm, similar to the last one but weaker, moves through the Gulf of Alaska and crosses the Pacific Northwest coast late Monday. The timing is uncertain, but a strong cold front is forecast to blast through our area during the day Tuesday and bring a good chance of accumulating snow as low as the Yampa Valley floor through Wednesday. Cold temperatures and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Thursday before clearing and eventual warming occurs around the following weekend.
Save your soles! You suspect that the grating and grinding sounds you hear from your ski boots as you walk across hard surfaces can’t be good. In fact, worn boot soles make your binding unsafe as it interferes with the boot-binding interface. Cat Tracks
Sixty degree Tuesday followed by snow on Wednesday
Sunday, April 7, 2019
We are currently experiencing a brilliant and seasonably cool Sunday morning after a weak cool front swept through the Steamboat Springs area yesterday afternoon. Plenty of sun and warming temperatures are expected through Tuesday before a very active Pacific jet stream brings a cold winter-like storm to our area on Wednesday. Unsettled and cool weather will follow heading into Closing Weekend with perhaps a break in the storminess forecast for our last day of the season on Sunday.
Enjoy the sun and and warming temperatures early in the work week as a transient ridge of high pressure moves over the West. We may even hit the sixty degree mark on Tuesday in breezy southwest flow ahead of the incoming Wednesday storm, which is ten degrees above our average of 50 F.
The Wednesday storm will be traveling across the Great Basin on Tuesday, and colder temperatures along with some light snow begin filtering into our area late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. The storm will intensify as it crosses the Continental Divide leading to some uncertainty in the evolution of the storm. But moderate to sometimes heavy snow is expected during the day Wednesday, even down on the Yampa Valley floor where high temperatures are expected to be fifteen or twenty degrees below average.
I’ll guess at 6-12” of snow at mid-mountain by Thursday morning, with snowfall starting relatively dense during the day but becoming fluffier as temperatures continue to drop during the day and overnight.
Snows look to taper off during a cold Thursday morning that will see low temperatures in the Yampa Valley five to ten degrees below our average of 24 F.
Additionally on Thursday, a second Pacific storm that traveled across the Gulf of Alaska and mixed with some cold air from the northern latitudes drops into the Great Basin. This storm is forecast to stay to our west and eventually south, and we will be caught in the col between the storms with weak and possibly dry northerly flow. This will keep our area cool and relatively dry for later Thursday through Friday, along with another chilly Friday morning and continued below average high temperatures.
A third weaker Pacific storm looks to graze northern Colorado on Saturday, with some accumulating snows from Friday night through Saturday night possible. However this is very uncertain as it depends upon the evolution of the previous storms, especially the second one, where there is substantial model disagreement.
Needless to say, a dry forecast for Closing Day from at least one of the weather forecast models is subject to change, though they do agree on an active storm track for the following week, and likely beyond.
