Monsoonal moisture to bring rains this week
Sunday, July 19, 2026
Temperatures are 91 degrees in Steamboat Springs on this Sunday mid-afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies and thunderstorms approaching from the east. These hot temperatures will start the workweek, along with modest rain chances from the finally arrived monsoonal moisture. Wednesday and Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and likely rain chances, with warmer temperatures and modest rain chances returning for the weekend.
The north end of a ridge of high pressure over the central Rocky Mountains is being squashed by cool air and Pacific energy moving across southwestern Canada. Monsoonal moisture moving northward around the clockwise circulation around the high pressure has finally made it into our area, with thunder rumbling through town.
Interestingly, the thunderstorms are approaching town from the east as small high-pressure cells form under the parent ridge to our north. These infernal easterly winds warm as they downslope off the Park Range, keeping nighttime temperatures elevated as they move overhead through the evening, sometimes lasting past midnight, as they have for most of this past week.
High temperatures will stay in the low 90s through Tuesday, well above the 84-degree average marking the heart of the summer heat. Modest afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances to start the workweek will become likely on Wednesday and Thursday as energy from or causing forecast storms over and south of eastern Texas and southern New Mexico rotates around the ridge.
High temperatures will fall to around average on Wednesday and to around 80 degrees on Thursday, our first below-average high temperatures in 2 weeks. Precipitation forecasts show around an inch of rain for our area through the workweek, though amounts will depend upon the location and intensity of the storms.
In fact, I’ve just had a cell pass overhead near the base of the Steamboat Resort with brief, moderate rain, leaving around a tenth of an inch, and mercifully dropping temperatures by 20 degrees between 3:30 and 4:30 pm, with 15 degrees of that happening in the last half hour!
Let’s hope for more storms to start the workweek, and look forward to the cooler, wetter weather on Wednesday and Thursday. I’ll have more details on the amount of monsoonal moisture for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Weekend to be cooler with increasing thunderstorm chances
Thursday, July 16, 2026
Some clouds are finally overhead on this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, keeping temperatures in the mid-80s so far. After last Sunday’s 98-degree record and possible records on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, high temperatures will settle around 90 degrees through the weekend, with increasing chances of mostly dry thunderstorms. Wetting rains become far more likely next week as monsoonal moisture moves overhead.
Not only did last Sunday break the daily record of 95, set in 1954, but it also became the 4th-warmest day in Steamboat Springs since 1893, tying 98-degree daily records set in 2001 on August 4, 6, 10, and 12. The official temperatures for the beginning of the workweek from the weather station behind the Steamboat Springs High School should be published by Sunday morning, so I may have more records to discuss in my next blog post on Sunday afternoon.
The record warmth was from a ridge of high pressure sitting over most of the country, save for the Northwest and Northeast coasts. Southerly winds on the backside of the high pressure have finally carried a plume of monsoonal moisture northward across Arizona and Utah, marking the start of the North American Monsoon.
Though the plume will be concentrated to our west through the weekend, enough moisture will leak eastward for increasing thunderstorm chances. Unfortunately, more wind than rain is forecast through most of the weekend as the dry lower atmosphere begins to moisten, delaying significant wetting rain chances until early next week.
But the afternoon clouds will temper the heat, with high temperatures forecast to be around 90 degrees through the weekend, still above the 84-degree average. So enjoy the cooler, but still hot, weekend, and look forward to the approaching monsoonal moisture as the advancing low pressure over the Northwest coast moves eastward across Canada, nudging the ridge of high pressure eastward. I’ll have more details about the rain chances for the workweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Heat wave to last through the week
Sunday, July 12, 2026
Sunny skies and temperatures already in the upper 80s, on their way to the mid-90s, are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon. After yesterday’s high temperature of 95 degrees fell one degree short of the 1954 record, similar heat will continue through the workweek and into next weekend. Monsoonal moisture will approach our area by midweek, with increasing precipitation chances appearing around next weekend and the following workweek.
An impressive ridge of high pressure is over most of the U.S., save for low pressure over the Northwest and Northeast coasts. The Northwest low pressure will be forced eastward across Canada through the workweek by Pacific energy traveling through the Gulf of Alaska, even as a new area of low pressure takes its place. The ridge will be barely dented, squirting around the traveling low pressure, and rebuilding over the West, continuing our current heat wave.
Forecast high temperatures in the mid-90s will be within a degree of the daily records on all days of the workweek except Thursday, with that 99-degree record, set in 1904, safe. Monsoonal moisture drawn northward by winds rotating clockwise around the ridge begins to approach our area by midweek, but the dry, hot atmosphere will take days to moisten.
Marginal thunderstorm chances appear after midweek and increase through next weekend, with wetting rains becoming more likely. The first storms may be similar to what we saw early yesterday evening, when gusty winds formed by virga, rain evaporating before it reaches the ground, were accompanied by some raindrops actually reaching the ground.
Despite the hot days, we should see comfortably cool nighttime temperatures reaching the low 50s. Take note, however, that any evening easterly winds rotating around high-pressure cells might delay the evening cooling by several hours or more, as the air warms on its way down the western slopes of the Park Range.
While we will see at least some monsoonal moisture starting after midweek, the timing, amount, and duration are uncertain. I will certainly have more details about the coming precipitation chances in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Ninety degree temperatures for the weekend
Thursday, July 9, 2026
A storm just skirted our area to the south this Thursday mid-afternoon, bringing a few drops of rain and gusty winds, leaving mostly sunny skies and comfortable mid-70-degree temperatures. There may be another chance of a shower later today, with a small chance of a storm on a mid-to-upper-80-degree Friday. Temperatures warm further into the 90s with no precipitation chances for the weekend and at least the start of the workweek.
A seasonally strong jet stream across southern Canada has brought westerly winds and some moisture into the area starting last Tuesday, clearing the area of smoke from the wildfires to our south and southwest. Town received between 0.1 and 0.15” from a single storm on Tuesday, with only a few hundredths recorded south near the Steamboat Resort. Another several hundredths fell yesterday, which is admittedly meager, but still much welcomed.
Storm coverage will be much less on Friday, though any storm will be capable of brief, locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Temperatures will begin rising as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region, with mostly sunny skies and upper-80s forecast for Friday and low-90s for Saturday.
The ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen over the West, and eventually the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by early next workweek, ahead of low pressure moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska. Forecast temperatures of 96 degrees on Sunday would break the 95-degree record set in 1939.
The record-challenging mid-90-degree temperatures and mostly sunny skies will be with us through at least the beginning of the workweek as the ridge expands northeastward. However, there is some hope for monsoonal moisture near the end of the workweek, depending upon the placement of one or more high-pressure cells over all but the eastern U.S.
Though it will be hot, smoke should at least stay away from our area as we see very light northerly winds through the weekend under the heat dome. Stay high to stay cool this weekend, as 70-degree high temperatures are forecast near 10,000′, and I’ll have more details about the possible push of monsoonal moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Hot week ahead
Sunday, July 5, 2026
A few clouds and temperatures in the upper 80s are making for a hot summer day this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Wildfire smoke revisits our region starting Monday, with some Pacific moisture bringing clouds, a few degrees of cooling, and dry thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. The cooler-but-still-above-average temperatures persist on Thursday before record-challenging temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s arrive next weekend.
A weak subtropical disturbance crossing the Central California coast is forecast to ride over a ridge of high pressure extending northward from the Southern Rockies. The Pacific disturbance is carrying limited moisture that will stay to our west on Monday, allowing high temperatures to rise to around 90 degrees, above our 82-degree average.
However, the NOAA smoke model shows some wildfire smoke rotating around the western side of the high pressure, possibly reducing air quality starting on Monday. The model only forecasts out to 48 hours, so I encourage you to check the latest model runs during the week.
The moisture will pass overhead on Tuesday and Wednesday, creating clouds and dropping high temperatures by only a few degrees. Some of these clouds may form thunderstorms, with most of the rain evaporating before it reaches the ground, forming virga, and creating gusty, erratic winds - not good for wildfire behavior.
Meanwhile, a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to cross the British Columbia coast midweek, temporarily flattening the ridge of high pressure over the Southern and Central Rockies. The dry thunderstorm chances will decrease on Thursday, the coolest day of the week, with high temperatures still in the mid-80s, before the ridge oozes westward to the Four Corners and significantly strengthens.
The building ridge will bring 90-degree temperatures back to our area on Friday, with possible record-challenging mid-to-upper 90s next weekend. Let’s hope the winds around the wildfires to our south and southwest are subdued, and I’ll have more details on the hottest weekend of the summer so far in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
