Temperatures to warm ahead of Christmas moisture
Sunday, December 21, 2025
A mix of clouds and sun is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon, with temperatures near forty degrees in town and freezing near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. After three and a half inches of snowfall on the hill Saturday and another half inch overnight, precipitation chances disappear until Christmas as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies, not a good start to astronomical winter, which began at 8:03 am.
Our weather until Christmas will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure building over the central U.S., downstream of a developing trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska. After a possible shower tonight, winds will turn to be from the southwest ahead of the deepening trough, bringing warm and dry air overhead with breezy afternoon winds.
We should see mostly sunny skies through Tuesday, with high temperatures in town in the forties, well above our twenty-nine-degree average, and low temperatures in the twenties, also well above our average of five degrees.
Cold air moving eastward from Siberia will round a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline, and strengthen the trough while moving at least a portion of it eastward. Weather forecast models have struggled not only with this eastward motion and whether an eddy eventually forms on its southern end, but also with how much cold air moves into the trough and how much continues eastward.
Current forecasts have a leading piece of energy ejecting out of the storm, crossing the West Coast Tuesday night, and bringing increasing clouds to our area on Wednesday. Showers may wait until Christmas Day, which is good, as the warm origin of the moisture means snow levels peak near 10,000′ on Wednesday night.
While showers are possible on Christmas Day, frozen precipitation will only reach the mid-mountain elevation, with temperatures not cooling enough to bring snowflakes to town until Friday. Precipitation amounts currently look to be quite modest, but there is still time for the forecast to change. Enjoy the nice prelude to the Christmas holiday, and I’ll have more details on what to expect for the coming weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Flurries tonight and tomorrow with better snow chances for Saturday
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Temperatures are at a seasonable thirty degrees in town and ten degrees up top with mostly sunny skies early this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. After a disappointing storm last night that produced no snow accumulations but plenty of wind, some moisture accompanying a strong jet stream will bring high-elevation flurries tonight and later Friday on a warmer day with morning sun. Winds will again increase starting Friday afternoon, accompanied by a stronger wave with still-spotty moisture which will bring snowfall chances from Friday night through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday.
A broad jet stream is moving between a ridge of high pressure over the Dateline and cold air in Canada. A trough of low pressure extending southwestward from the Gulf of Alaska towards Hawaii has carried an atmospheric river, also called the Pineapple Express due to its Hawaiian origins, northeastward into the Pacific Northwest. While we did get wind last night due to the proximity of the jet stream, including a gust of 78 mph near the top of the Steamboat Ski Area at 7 pm, measured at ten meters above Storm Peak Lab, and even 97 mph at 9 pm, measured at twelve meters above the lab, we did not get the moisture, disappointingly leaving only flurries.
After a seasonably cool day with temperatures in town several degrees above our average of twenty-nine degrees, there may be some flurries tonight as we are brushed a weak wave embedded in the jet stream.
While Friday will start sunny and be warmer than today, another wave of cool air carrying the remnants of the Pineapple Express will approach later Friday, increasing afternoon winds and the chance for evening showers. Unlike the last storm, which quickly brought a strong cold front through town, this front stalls around our area from Friday night through Saturday, leaving an opportunity for showers to develop along the stationary front.
Strong winds will continue Friday night, and thankfully decrease during the day Saturday, but the moisture forecast is uncertain, in no small part due to the poor weather forecast model performance for last night’s storm. We could see 1-4” of wind-blown snow by the Saturday morning mid-mountain report, with that again during the day, depending upon the proximity of the front and moisture quality.
Temperatures are expected to warm on Sunday, with the possibility of additional minor accumulations as another wave in the jet stream grazes the area, although weather forecast models are in disagreement over that scenario.
Monday may remain unsettled before cold air moving southward through Alaska amplifies the Gulf of Alaska trough, building a ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain region and bringing warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies by Tuesday. A piece of that trough may break away and bring unsettled weather back to the region around Christmas Day, though there are a lot of moving pieces associated with that forecast.
So once again, hope for more snow than forecast, and I’ll have more details on what we can expect during the days leading up to Christmas in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation chances to increase later Wednesday
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Another beautiful day is over Steamboat Springs with mostly sunny skies and upper-mountain temperatures already in the upper thirties, and temperatures in town around freezing, on their way towards fifty degrees. Temperatures are expected to cool several degrees through midweek, with some clouds on Tuesday, followed by light precipitation starting later on Wednesday and colder temperatures on Thursday. More precipitation is possible for the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is sandwiched between persistent troughs of low pressure over the East and the Gulf of Alaska, and a stout ridge of high pressure over the Dateline. The Dateline ridge is splitting the cold air around the North Pole in half, leaving cold air centers in Canada and Siberia. Most of the cold air from Siberia, carried eastward by the jet stream, has been directed over the Dateline ridge and into the Gulf of Alaska trough, even as some has traveled under the ridge and toward the southern end of that trough.
The result is a complicated weather pattern prone to forecast uncertainty, as it is unclear not only how much cold air travels underneath or over the top of the Dateline ridge, but also how much moves into the Gulf of Alaska trough or moves eastward. Additional uncertainty is related to how much subtropical and possibly tropical moisture may be drawn into the waves of cold air.
Weather forecast models have settled on a wave of cool air with modest moisture moving over our area later Wednesday, pushing the ridge of high pressure over the West eastward. Dry air under the ridge will stick around on Monday, with temperatures cooling a few degrees into the upper forties, still over fifteen degrees above our average of thirty degrees.
Some clouds on Tuesday will drop the high temperatures by another few degrees to the mid-forties, with a high-elevation shower possible. Clouds and winds will be increasing on Wednesday as the wave approaches, with precipitation breaking out later in the day and continuing overnight. Complicating the forecast is the eventual amount of cold air moving southward from western Canada, which may increase or decrease the 2-5” of snowfall expected at mid-mountain for the Thursday morning report. Unfortunately, the warm lower-elevation temperatures mean a rain-snow mix in town.
Thursday will see periods of sun and high temperatures falling to the thirties in town, still around five degrees above average, and the twenties up top. Friday will be warmer, with some morning sun, but there could be afternoon showers ahead of a stronger and more promising wave to start the weekend.
Enjoy the nice start to the workweek, hope for a colder and snowier Wednesday night, and I’ll have more details about the weekend storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Warm and dry weather to persist through the weekend
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Temperatures are already near forty degrees this Thursday at noon in Steamboat Springs, on their way to the mid-forties, with mostly sunny skies. This beautiful weather will persist through the weekend, with no hope for cooler and wetter weather until next midweek at the earliest.
A deep trough of low pressure located just downstream of a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline has directed a channel of tropical and subtropical moisture, known as an atmospheric river, northeastward. It has traveled around the periphery of a broad ridge of high pressure over most of the West, bringing heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, but keeping our area warm and dry.
Also anchoring this atmospheric pattern is a persistent trough of low pressure over the eastern half of North America, which is forecast to be reinforced by cold air sliding southeastward from the Yukon and Northwest Territories near the Arctic Circle along the east side of the strengthening ridge of high pressure over the West.
The building ridge of high pressure over the West will keep warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies around through the weekend at least, with high temperatures in town in the mid-forties, around fifteen degrees above our average of thirty degrees. The dry air will allow nighttime lows to fall into the teens, still about ten degrees above our average of six degrees. Daily high temperature records appear safe as they are in the fifties for the coming week.
There may be some hope for precipitation around midweek, though it would likely be a warm event. There is also hope for a more substantial pattern change around the following week, though that keeps getting pushed to the end of the sixteen-day forecast. Enjoy a beautiful and warm weekend, and I’ll have an update on storm chances in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures to warm this week with precipitation chances tonight and midweek
Sunday, December 7, 2025
The sun broke out this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs, with the temperature right at freezing, while the top of the Steamboat Ski Area has clouds, a temperature of thirteen degrees, and gusty breezes from the northwest. After a bit of snow tonight, temperatures will begin a warming trend that lasts through the workweek, bringing high temperatures into the mid-forties in town and upper-twenties near the top of the hill. Uncertainty remains high regarding the strength and duration of a warm storm around midweek that could bring liquid precipitation to town and snow to the higher elevations.
Since winter started properly a week ago Friday, the Steamboat Ski Resort has reported snow every morning except last Sunday, with mid-mountain accumulating 32” of snow. The well-advertised storm this weekend produced winds gusting to above 70 mph at the top of the hill on Saturday, and 17” of snow since it started on Thursday night.
Our area remains in breezy northwest flow as winds accelerate toward a persistent trough of low pressure extending southwards from Hudson Bay. A weak wave moving through this northwest flow will bring a chance of snow showers from about midnight tonight through noon on Monday, leaving 1-4” for the Monday morning report and perhaps another inch or two by noon.
Similar to today, the sun should appear by Monday afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid-thirties, above the average of freezing.
A complicated weather pattern in the central Pacific is making for an uncertain precipitation forecast from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and possibly Thursday, though warming temperatures are more certain. A storm over the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to merge with a storm south of the Aleutian Islands, elongating southwestward towards Hawaii. A broad ridge of high pressure then develops downstream of this feature over the West, continuing a warming trend that brings high temperatures into the low-forties by midweek.
Subtropical and possibly tropical moisture will be drawn northeastward along the eastern side of the central Pacific low pressure area and injected into the high pressure ridge. It appears we will at least see a grazing shot of precipitation later Tuesday into Wednesday as this moisture moves nearby, though snow levels are forecast to rise to above Christie Peak by Wednesday afternoon.
Weather forecast models have varied considerably, both between and within themselves, as they struggle with the amount of cold air drawn southward from western Canada and southwestward from Hudson Bay. The European ECMWF is more pessimistic than the American GFS, and has been more consistent in predicting a jet stream further north and lower precipitation amounts. We could see as much as 2-5” of snow by the Wednesday and Thursday morning ski reports, or as little as 1-4” just on Wednesday.
In any event, there is forecast consistency for a warm and dry weekend. Let’s hope the jet stream sags to the south midweek, and I’ll have more details on the weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
