Dwindling precipitation chances on Friday to precede a nice weekend
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper forties on this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs with partly sunny skies. Precipitation chances have diminished for Friday, leaving only some upper-elevation snow showers and cooler temperatures. Warmer temperatures return for the weekend, including mostly sunny skies for Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Resort on Saturday.
Thank you to those who attended my presentation on Tuesday night at the library, and no one should have been surprised by the quick shower that passed through early Wednesday morning. I want to elaborate on a couple of questions I received regarding snowfall forecasts and wind direction.
Shown are four panels from the NAM forecast made at 11 am today and valid for 5 am Friday. Remember the first panel in the upper left represents the atmosphere at around 18,000′, or half its total depth, with the red denoting storm energy, or spin.
The second panel in the lower left is a forecast for the mountain-top level of around 12,000′, with green and orange denoting high and low relative humidities, respectively, and the third panel in the upper right is the surface pressure pattern.
In all of these, I have drawn green arrows indicating the wind direction at these three levels, which tend to follow along the black lines. These indicate constant height surfaces, or isoheights, in the first two panels and pressure surfaces, or isobars, in the third. Note the split flow, where the northern part of the jet stream flows across southern Canada and the southern part, which is comprised of a large eddy off the southern California coast, a smaller eddy in western Kansas, and a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast. Also note the counterclockwise circulation around the eddies, with clockwise circulation around the high pressure areas in the Dakotas and the Southeast. Generally, the denser the isoheights and isobars, the faster the winds.
The fourth panel in the lower right indicates precipitation, and I neglected to mention that this is a quantitative precipitation forecast, or QPF. The multicolored bar at the bottom of this panel indicates liquid forecast amounts, in millimeters, forecast to fall in the previous six hours, highlighted by the green arrows over coastal British Columbia, southern California, and Missouri. The dark blue indicates a range between 50 and 75 mm, while the light green indicates a range between 125 and 150 mm.
The final step for snow forecasting is converting the forecast liquid water into snow, which is temperature-dependent. A first-order estimate is 10:1, which represents dense snow, while the light and dry powder is around 20:1 or higher. This conversion adds complexity to already difficult forecasts.
Finally, I have added total accumulated snowfall underlying the forecast radar returns shown in the Rapid Refresh radar forecast, found by selecting NCEP in the MODEL DATA menu. Selecting a d(prog)/dt for 18Z Friday explicitly shows the dwindling forecast snow amounts over the last four runs. Since the Tuesday talk, those snow amounts went up to as high as 8” in the Wednesday 18Z, or 11 am, forecast, to nothing from today’s forecast. This was due to the changing forecast track of the eddy, which moved from northeastern Colorado to western Kansas.
There may be some spotty showers around Friday, but other than temperatures in town falling to the low forties, several degrees above our average of thirty-nine degrees, not much weather is expected from the grazing eddy.
A transient ridge of high pressure behind the departing eddy and ahead of the California eddy will make for a mostly sunny Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Resort, with high temperatures in town rising back to the upper-forties. The California eddy is forecast to enter Arizona on Saturday and approach the Four Corners on Sunday, bringing precipitation to Arizona, New Mexico, and southern and eastern Colorado, but only some clouds to our area, allowing high temperatures to stay in the upper forties.
Meanwhile, a northern Pacific wave of energy moving across the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast late in the weekend, ingesting some cold western Canadian air as it brings a cold front into our area around Monday night. Moisture is limited with this front and the cool northwest flow that follows through Thanksgiving, but there is some hope for snow.
Enjoy the nice weekend, and I’ll have more details about the cold front early next holiday week and what follows in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Wintry weather to begin tonight
Sunday, November 16, 2025
Though Sunday morning started cloudy, mostly sunny skies with temperatures around fifty degrees, on the way towards sixty degrees, are over Steamboat Springs late this morning. But the clouds will return later this afternoon ahead of an approaching storm that will bring wintry weather tonight. Starting as rain below 10,000′, a cold front will bring much colder temperatures and significant snowfall above 8,000′ through Monday, with a bit of snow possible in town. The cold air persists through the workweek, with uncertain precipitation chances around and after midweek.
An eddy of low pressure over southern Nevada is on the move, forced northeastward by another storm approaching the West Coast. While temperatures will approach sixty degrees this afternoon, over fifteen degrees above our average of forty-two degrees, the approaching storm will increase clouds this afternoon, bringing a cold front by mid-evening.
The storm is warm, with snow levels starting near 10,000′ before falling toward the Yampa Valley bottom by Monday morning. Fortunately, the storm has trended further north, wetter, and colder over the last few days, bringing 2-5” of snow above 8,000′ and maybe an inch in town by Monday morning.
This snowfall is sorely needed, not only to begin the season’s snowpack, but also for Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Resort on this coming Saturday. While coverage on Lower High Noon yesterday was sparse, as shown in the photo I took from near the top of the Sunnyside trail, I’m guessing snowmaking efforts, aided by the colder temperatures this week, will allow access via the Wild Blue Gondola to Upper High Noon, perhaps Tomahawk, and the Sunshine lift.
The eddy is forecast to be in northeast Colorado by Monday afternoon, allowing snow showers to continue in the favorable, moist, and unstable northwest flow behind the storm. High temperatures in town will fall to average, perhaps not even breaching forty degrees, with another 2-5” of snow above 8,000′.
Meanwhile, the next storm will split as it crosses the West Coast Monday afternoon, with the southern end forming another eddy that is forecast to slowly move across southern California through midweek. A transient ridge of high pressure will form over the Intermountain West for at least part of Tuesday, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper forties with periods of sun.
There is a lot of uncertainty starting later Tuesday regarding not only the speed and track of the eddy, but also the northern part of the split, which moves across the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. We could see precipitation chances, perhaps lasting into Thursday, from either the eddy if it moves far enough north, or the northern stream if it extends far enough south.
I will not have those details before my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, but will have an updated forecast at the Bud Werner Memorial Library on Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm, where I’ll be discussing how I use the SnowAlarm website to forecast the weather.
Pattern change delayed until later Sunday
Thursday, November 13, 2025
Another spectacular fall day is over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures just above sixty degrees, fifteen degrees above average. A storm to our north will bring some breezes on Friday and passing clouds on Saturday, along with a few degrees of cooling to start the weekend. By later Sunday, the pattern change that was earlier expected as early as Friday finally arrives, with increasing clouds during the day and showers by the afternoon or evening.
Fall and spring storms can be difficult to forecast as cold air is rapidly forming in the northern latitudes while warm air still resides in the southern latitudes. One or the other will dominate, though subtle differences in the atmospheric flows eventually dictate the outcome. This storm ended up slowing and splitting compared to the weather model guidance used in last Sunday’s weather narrative, delaying the anticipated pattern change and bringing another several days of very pleasant fall weather.
The northern end of the storm is forecast to traverse the Northern Rockies on Friday, bringing increased westerly breezes in the afternoon, but leaving our high temperatures untouched and in the lower sixties. The grazing storm will knock high temperatures back several degrees into the high fifties on Saturday, still around fifteen degrees above our rapidly falling average of forty-three degrees, along with some passing clouds.
Meanwhile, the southern end of the split storm will be forced eastward across southern California Saturday night by a new storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and accelerate northeastward across the Great Basin during Sunday. There is still uncertainty regarding the onset of precipitation, but we can expect a mostly cloudy day with increasing chances of showers, possibly as early as noon or as late as the evening.
Due to its southern trajectory, the storm will be warm, with rain in town and snow levels starting near 10,000′ early Sunday and declining to around 7,500′ by early Monday. Precipitation should taper off during the day, with current forecasts indicating about a third of an inch of rain in town and 3-6” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Area by Monday afternoon.
The developing Gulf of Alaska storm is then forecast to cross the West Coast on Monday, with its evolution and path as it moves eastward uncertain. Be sure to take advantage of what may be our last stretch of beautiful fall weather, and I’ll have more details on what to expect next week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. And remember, please join me on Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm at the Bud Werner Memorial Library, where I’ll be discussing how I use the SnowAlarm website to forecast the weather.
Warm and dry weather ahead of likely end-of-workweek pattern change
Sunday, November 9, 2025
Sunny skies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday mid-afternoon, with temperatures a degree above our average of forty-six degrees. Even warmer temperatures, ten or more degrees above average, passing clouds, and some afternoon breezes are forecast for most of the workweek ahead of a likely pattern change bringing wet and cold weather starting as soon as Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is sandwiched between an elongating trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific and a vortex of unseasonably cold air extending southward from north of the Great Lakes. While the cold air over the Midwest will eventually engulf the entire eastern half of the country through midweek, possibly bringing freezing temperatures to northern Florida, the ridge of high pressure will keep warm and dry weather overhead through Thursday with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper fifties.
The southern end of the eastern Pacific trough is forecast to form an eddy by Monday, which loiters between Hawaii and southern California through Tuesday, as the northern end races across the Pacific Northwest, bringing breezy afternoon winds to our area on Tuesday as it briefly flattens the ridge of high pressure overhead.
Meanwhile, a new storm is predicted to form in the Bering Sea on Monday, elongating southward as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, similar to the previous storm. However, this storm does not split and remains intact, absorbing some of the eddy and eventually bringing a wet and cold pattern to the West Coast on Thursday and the Interior West on Friday.
Ahead of that storm, part of the eddy will be forced northeastward, quickly moving overhead on Wednesday, bringing clouds that should not dent the warm workweek temperatures. Another warm day is forecast for Thursday before the incoming storm affects our weather as soon as Friday.
Until then, enjoy another mild fall workweek, and I’ll certainly have more details on how this promising pattern change is evolving in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon. And a heads up! Are you interested in learning how I use my website to make a weather forecast? On Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm at the Bud Werner Memorial Library, I’ll walk you through the process and show you the tools I use at SnowAlarm.com to create this weather narrative.
Cooler weekend temperatures with precipitation chances later today and Friday night
Thursday, November 6, 2025
After a cloudy morning in Steamboat Springs that produced a quick noon shower, some partial clearing early this Thursday afternoon should give way to some more showers later today. Another brief period of mostly sunny skies to start Friday will be followed by increasing afternoon clouds and late afternoon and overnight precipitation chances. Increasingly sunny but cool weather is advertised for the weekend, followed by another warm and dry workweek.
An ejected piece of energy from a storm bringing high winds and precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and northern California was responsible for the noon shower, with another piece bringing more precipitation chances later this afternoon and tonight. These showers produced some brief low-elevation graupel and a dusting of snow above 9,000′, according to Steamboat’s upper mountain powdercam and mid-mountain powdercam.
While Friday will start mostly sunny, the Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to travel through Idaho early in the day and across the northern Rockies Friday night. Increasing clouds by noon on Friday will give way to another round of showers by Friday afternoon and evening as the southern end of the storm passes through our area, with some snowflakes possible in town. High temperatures for the day will be within a few degrees of our average of forty-seven degrees, quite the cooldown from the mid-to-upper sixties we enjoyed earlier this week.
There could be several inches of snow at high elevations by Saturday morning, on a cool day, with high temperatures only in the low forties. An additional wave of dry and cold air spinning around a vortex over Hudson Bay will be ingested by the trailing edge of the storm Saturday night, bringing low temperatures in the mid-teens for Sunday morning, below our average of nineteen degrees, and good for snowmaking operations at the Steamboat Ski Resort.
Temperatures will warm back to around average on a mostly sunny Sunday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West ahead of a strong storm forecast to develop over the eastern Pacific. Even warmer temperatures are forecast to start the workweek, with little hope for precipitation until the end of the workweek or the following weekend.
Enjoy the improving weather for the weekend, and I’ll have more details on the eastern Pacific storm and the end-of-week precipitation chances in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
