Dry and hot ahead of increasing moisture starting Thursday
Sunday, August 10, 2025
Partly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday mid-afternoon. The smoke plume from the Lee fire, mapped at over 106,000 acres and six percent contained, and the Elk fire, mapped at over 14,000 acres and nine percent contained, was pushed to our south along the I-70 corridor by a couple of cool fronts on Friday and Saturday nights. It should stay to our south for at least a couple of days as temperatures rise into the upper eighties by Tuesday, with hot temperatures persisting through much of the workweek. Some monsoonal moisture is forecast to begin moving overhead starting Thursday, peaking by Saturday, with chances for meaningful moisture reaching the ground uncertain but likely on the low side.
An area of low pressure extends southwestward from the southern shores of Hudson Bay to the Desert Southwest, while an area of high pressure sits off the west coast of North America. Cool air from western Canada was brought into our area by northwesterly winds this weekend, bringing the comfortable temperatures associated with our first northwesterly cool fronts of the season, and pushing the smoke plume from the wildfires near Meeker to our south.
Clearing skies tonight should bring chilly overnight temperatures in the upper-thirties to town by Monday morning, below the forty-five degree average, especially in the favored low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley. High temperatures are forecast to rise to around our eighty-two-degree average on Monday with mostly sunny skies, as high pressure begins to build over the West behind the departing trough.
Even warmer temperatures in the upper eighties are forecast for Tuesday, with wildfire smoke forecast to stay away on both Monday and Tuesday as winds retain a northerly component. Temperatures are forecast to approach ninety degrees on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge moves eastward, bringing westerly breezes that make the smoke forecast uncertain. Check the NOAA Smoke model forecast, run four times a day, for the latest forecast smoke plume trajectories.
Meanwhile, a wave of energy ejects from an area of low pressure in the central Pacific, mixes with some cool air north of the Bering Straight, and develops into a new area of low pressure off the west coast of North America by midweek. Winds ahead of the low pressure and behind a building ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will encourage moisture from the Mexican Plateau to move northward, bringing a weak monsoonal surge of moisture to our area that begins Thursday and peaks Saturday.
So thunderstorm chances begin by Thursday afternoon, with the best chance of wetting rains holding off until later Saturday. Unfortunately, even then, storms are most likely to produce more wind than rain, a depressing forecast for controlling the wildfires near Meeker.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and Monday, hoping the firefighters can take advantage of the opportunity to achieve greater containment of the Meeker wildfires. I’ll have more details on the coming monsoonal surge of moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
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