Wall of water to arrive tonight
Thursday, February 13, 2025
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-single digits at all elevations in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies this Thursday at noon. A storm and its associated atmospheric river currently pounding the Sierras will begin snows this evening and deliver between twenty and thirty inches of snow at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort by Saturday evening, with difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass likely. Another storm quickly follows bringing another round of significant snow between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday.
Before getting to the forecast, I’d like to review the astounding 15” of snow reported at mid-mountain Wednesday morning despite only 7” at the top. The storm was heavily banded, which can create localized areas of high snowfall, as evidenced by the Rabbit Ears Snotel at a similar elevation to mid-mountain measuring about six inches of snowfall.
Additionally, that snowfall at the Steamboat Ski Resort was maximized around mid-mountain was likely due to perfect snowflake-making temperatures and the loss of moisture above that elevation, as shown by the accompanying three-day time series of temperature and relative humidity at Storm Peak Lab. Note the relative humidity decreased soon after 6 pm MST on Tuesday as the red temperature line diverged from the blue dew point line near the center of the chart, shutting down the snowfall at that elevation but allowing it to continue at mid-mountain.
Thankfully the subzero temperatures that followed the storm, including a low of -12 F Wednesday morning at the top of the hill and a high of only -6 F, are being moderated by an approaching storm containing an atmospheric river as winds shift to the southwest and carry much warmer air overhead. Snowflakes should begin to fall early in the evening and become moderate to heavy by midnight as abundant moisture combines with strong storm forcing to overcome the unfavorable southwest winds. I expect 5-10” of accumulation for the Friday morning mid-mountain report.
Winds will shift to be first from the west early in the day as the storm center moves overhead and then the northwest later in the day behind the storm center. Most of the storm energy is lost by later Friday as the storm moves overhead, after leaving 6-12” by sunset, but that should be compensated for by the favorable most and unstable northwest flow, which should bring 4-8” overnight for a 10-20” Saturday morning report and another 4-8” during the day Saturday. Travel may be difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass from Thursday evening through most of Saturday under the heavier showers.
While we will see a break in the big accumulations, we might not see a break in light snowfall or flurries Saturday night into a chilly Sunday morning before another storm brings moderate to heavy snows back to our area from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday, with early estimates in the 10-20” range.
So enjoy what will almost certainly be a snowy Washington’s Birthday long weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next storm.
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