Warm and mostly cloudy skies to persist with some precipitation chances midweek
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Temperatures are in the low forties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort early this Sunday afternoon under cloudy skies. After snowfall through much of the day Saturday, southwest winds have pushed the active weather northward, leaving warm temperatures and mostly cloudy skies that will persist into midweek. A grazing disturbance will bring precipitation chances back to our area later Wednesday into Thursday followed by another break ahead of a possibly stronger storm for the weekend.
The weekend weather forecast proved to be as challenging as feared, with almost all snowfall occurring within the first pulse of the Pineapple Express moisture. By the morning ski report, three inches of snow fell at all elevations starting around 3 am Saturday, with an additional 6.5” at mid-mountain and 10” up top by 5 pm Saturday, before increasing southwest winds pushed the active weather northward. The forecast from my last weather narrative was corrupted by an earlier and stronger moisture injection from the storm north of Hawaii and the stronger southwest winds from the merged storm centers off the Vancouver coast.
Now, the Vancouver storm is forecast to elongate to the southwest before a piece moves eastward and merges with the Hawaii storm and its associated atmospheric river, crossing the West coast early Wednesday. A broad ridge of high pressure ahead of the storm extending from the Desert Southwest northward will keep our high temperatures around ten degrees or more above our 32 F average, and low temperatures almost twenty degrees above our 6 F average. Drier air from the Desert Southwest will allow for some sun on Monday for the nicest day of the coming workweek.
Clouds will be back on Tuesday, with the weather forecast models disagreeing on how much moisture makes it past the Sierra Nevadas and how close it will be to our area. The American GFS is the most pessimistic, with a cloudy Wednesday and meager precipitation, however a blended forecast yields an average of around six inches of snow by the Thursday morning report, with a rain-snow mix in town.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a ridge of high pressure extending southward from Alaska is forecast to eventually dislodge the rest of the still-elongating Vancouver storm and bring it toward our area next weekend. The storm looks colder, dropping temperatures below average, but nowhere near as cold as last week’s arctic outbreak, with significant snow possible.
So soak up the sun on Monday, hope for midweek snow, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the possible weekend storm.
Pineapple Express to bring rain, snow and wind this weekend
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Crystal clear skies with cool temperatures near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs and the low twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort are over the area this Thursday at noon. We’ll see another nice day on Friday before an approaching storm brings increasing winds, moisture and temperatures starting Friday night and lasting through the weekend.
A complex series of features as seen by the water vapor satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific includes a couple of storm centers extending south from the Gulf of Alaska, a storm just north of Hawaii, and an atmospheric river extending from Hawaii to Vancouver, the so-called Pineapple Express. Interestingly, the two Gulf of Alaska storms evolved from the splitting Aleutian storm discussed in my last weather narrative from Sunday, and are destined to meet again on Friday.
A ridge of high pressure ahead of these features is over most of the West, allowing for the sunny days and clear nights this workweek. These conditions have allowed the stubborn low-level temperature inversion in Yampa Valley to persist, forcing subzero nights over ten degrees below the five-degree average and high temperatures struggling to reach our average of 31 F.
We should see another nice day Friday before the Gulf of Alaska storms merge and push the ridge of high pressure eastward. Winds will shift from the cold north to the mild west during the day as the merged storm system spins over Vancouver. Meanwhile, southwest winds ahead of the storm north of Hawaii will direct a firehose of moisture toward the Vancouver storm, bringing heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Energy ejecting from the storm will carry Pacific moisture across the northern Rockies, first bringing increasing clouds to our area Friday night, and showers by Saturday evening, including gusty winds from the west as high as 70 mph around midnight.
Snow levels will rise through the weekend, reaching the valley bottom by Saturday morning and Christie Peak on Sunday. So expect any precipitation to be a rain-snow mix in town on Saturday, ending up as more rain than snow on Sunday.
Snowfall guesses are problematic as a wavering stationary front extending eastward from the Vancouver storm will separate the cold air to our north from the warm air to our south. Additionally, the width and location of the atmospheric river are still changing in the weather forecast models, making it unclear how much moisture may eventually move overhead. One sometimes-right model predicts up to six inches of snow by the Sunday morning report with temperatures falling to five degrees up top, likely making for some good skiing, wind-affected snow from Saturday night notwithstanding.
Precipitation will likely extend into Monday before we see a break ahead of more snow chances by midweek as at least a piece of the Vancouver storm moves nearby. So enjoy the beautiful weather before the weekend, check the mid-mountain Powdercam and upper-mountain Powdercam first thing Sunday morning for the ground truth, as I will, and check back in the afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll have more details on the next possible storm.
Weather to clear this afternoon ahead of a nice workweek
Sunday, January 26, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper teens in Steamboat Springs and low teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional snow flurries this Sunday mid-morning. Skies should begin clearing later today with seasonable temperatures and more sun than not forecast for most of the workweek. Unsettled weather looks to return around next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure currently extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska while an eddy of low pressure spins just off the central California coast. The stationary front that brought five inches of snow to mid-mountain and eight inches up top through the weekend is being further deprived of moisture as the California eddy moves southward. So the light snow showers prevalent at higher elevations will continue to diminish today ahead of some sun for the afternoon.
The weather pattern for the workweek will be quiet as our region will be caught in the col between the California eddy and the northwest flow to our north rounding the Gulf of Alaska ridge. Seasonable temperatures with highs between five degrees above and below our thirty-degree average will persist through the workweek, with low temperatures on the cooler side of our five-degree average as periods of clear skies, light winds and snow cover create ideal conditions for the usual high-valley temperature inversions to form.
The eddy of low pressure is forecast to elongate and wobble first southward and then eastward through Arizona on Tuesday and Wednesday, and New Mexico on Thursday. While southern Colorado will see some precipitation during this period, we will remain dry, with more sun than not and some gusty easterly winds beginning around Monday night thanks to air moving counterclockwise around the eddy.
While the eddy may eventually bring a storm to the Front Range around the end of the workweek, another storm currently extending south from the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move eastward, pushing the weakening West Coast ridge eastward and over our area. So we should close out the workweek on a pleasant note before unsettled weather begins around next weekend as the Aleutian storm approaches.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the next storm cycle due to the splitting nature of the Aleutian storm as it moves through the Gulf of Alaska midweek. So enjoy the pleasant workweek, with near-average temperatures for a change, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the possible weekend storm.
Arctic air mass to retreat starting Friday thanks to a moderate storm
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Temperatures are only near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs this Thursday at noon and minus three degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski resort under cloudy skies with high-elevation flurries. An approaching storm will displace the unseasonably cold arctic air mass by Friday afternoon, bringing light to moderate snowfall that will last into Sunday.
It’s been quite the frigid week in Steamboat Springs, with one daily temperature record broken on Monday when the high temperature reached only five degrees, three degrees colder than the record set in 1937. But the cold was also unusually persistent, with the average high temperature of 6.5 degrees recorded over Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1924 record by two degrees, the 8.7 degrees recorded over Sunday, Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1937 record by two degrees, and the 9.3 degrees recorded between Saturday and Tuesday breaking the 11.5 degree record from 1984. While Tuesday morning was cold with -24 F recorded at the downtown weather station, we escaped the -34 F record, set in 1935, though the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area recorded a low of -29 F.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a building ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to split as it moves over the Pacific Northwest on Friday. A small ridge of high pressure will pass through our area ahead of the storm, bringing clearing skies by this afternoon or evening and allowing another round of subzero temperatures for Friday morning, below our average of five degrees.
The southern end of the split is forecast to eventually form an eddy off the northern California coast by Saturday, allowing first westerly and then southwesterly winds to warm the atmosphere. Additionally, some Pacific moisture will be brought overhead, overunning a stationary front in our proximity separating the warm air to our south from the arctic air still to our north.
Light snow showers should begin Friday afternoon, becoming moderate at times from Friday night through Saturday before tapering off through Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see 2-5” of snow by the Saturday morning mid-mountain report, another 2-5” during the day and an additional 1-4” by the Sunday morning report
There is some uncertainty in the snow and temperature forecasts due to the eventual position of the stationary front, with a stronger push from the southwest nudging warmer temperatures and snow to the north. These stationary fronts also tend to waver as energy ejecting from the upstream eddy moves overhead, perhaps creating breaks in snowfall interspersed with heavier showers.
After meandering over northern California through the weekend, the eddy is forecast to move first south through the weekend, then east across the Desert Southwest, bringing desperately needed precipitation to the wildfire disaster ongoing in southern California on Sunday and Monday. We should see some nice and seasonable weather to end the weekend and start the next workweek, with high temperatures finally in the twenties, approaching the average of thirty degrees.
Enjoy the snow and warmer temperatures, and check back Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll discuss how long we can expect the nice conditions to persist.
Some warming to follow near record low temperatures on Monday
Sunday, January 19, 2025
The Steamboat Springs temperature finally broke above zero degrees under cloudy skies early this Sunday afternoon, though the mountain-top temperature has only reached minus five degrees. The deep freeze will only deepen as a final push of cold air tonight brings some snow and perhaps the record coldest high temperature for the date on Monday, which peaked at eight degrees in 1937. And if skies clear by Tuesday morning, the record low temperatures of -34 F in 1935 could be in jeopardy. Warmer but still below-average temperatures will persist until Friday when more seasonable, and reasonable, temperatures occur before another possibly cold storm around next weekend.
Sadly, the conservative, rather than optimistic, forecast from last Thursday’s weather narrative verified when 3” was reported at mid-mountain Saturday morning and 5” at the summit, in addition to 2” reported at both locations this morning. Using the optimistic model to make a reasonable snowfall guess is problematic as I have found no reliable indicator to weigh its outcome, making the model most useful in hindsight.
But the cold air for this weekend was never in doubt thanks to a sharp ridge of high pressure over the West Coast extending to the North Pole and directing air from a vortex of bitterly cold air centered west of Hudson Bay over our area. A final wave of cold air will pass through tonight, leaving another 1-4” on the hill and threatening our coldest January 20th high temperature of 8 F recorded in 1937. The sun may appear in the afternoon, making it feel marginally warmer, but if skies stay clear we could be threatening our low temperature for the date of -34 F recorded in 1935, unreasonably below our average of 5 F.
A strong storm off the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move eastward, also pushing a leading storm and the weakening West Coast ridge of high pressure ridge eastward. We should see mostly sunny skies for Tuesday as what is left of the ridge moves overhead, though after such a cold start, temperatures may struggle to reach 10 F, well below our average of 30 F.
The weaker storm in advance of the Aleutian storm will move through our area on Wednesday, bringing clouds, a chance of flurries and slightly warmer but still well below-average temperatures. You know the previous morning was cold when the National Weather Service forecast for Wednesday morning says “Not as cold. Lows 10 below zero to 20 below”!.
Temperatures will only slowly moderate for Thursday and Friday, with lows in the minus teens to the minus single digits and highs from the teens to the twenties. Friday looks like the warmest day of the week and quite pleasant ahead of that Aleutian storm forecast to bring some snow and more cold next weekend.
Dress especially warmly for the start of the week, the National Weather Service has an Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, renamed from an Extreme Wind Chill Watch this season, and expect well below-zero mornings through most of the workweek. Check back for more details on the possible weekend storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
