Beautiful early fall weather ahead
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Fall was shepherded into the Steamboat Springs area Saturday afternoon by a blustery storm short on precipitation. Cool and unstable air behind the storm will keep some clouds around for the first day of fall this Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-sixties. Even though Monday will start sunny, we should see afternoon clouds ahead of a grazing cold front early Tuesday that will keep temperatures below seventy degrees. But mostly sunny skies with high temperatures reaching seventy degrees on Tuesday and upper-seventies starting Wednesday promise a beautiful stretch of weather lasting into the weekend.
Hopes for a dusting of snow at the top of the Steamboat Ski Area last night were dashed by a storm that traveled a bit further south than forecast. We were left with gusty winds reaching 43 mph at the Bob Adams airport and 62 mph at the Storm Peak Lab with an easterly component that squashed most precipitation, thanks to downsloping off the Park Range. Most of town received about five-hundredths of an inch of rain, and no precipitation occurred at the top of the ski area in time for the freezing temperatures which arrived just before midnight.
Fortunately, fall color has only started to appear, and most leaves were left on the trees for what promises to be a great show thanks to the rapidly appearing color. We should see a mix of sun and clouds this Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-sixties, about five degrees below our rapidly falling average of 71 F.
A cold front forecast by the European ECMWF to be more impactful in previous model interations will end up only grazing our area early Tuesday morning, similar to the American GFS, bringing some Monday afternoon clouds after a sunny but chilly start. Low temperatures Monday should fall to just below our average of 34 F with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
But a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West behind the grazing front starting Tuesday and lasting into the following weekend. Despite our average high temperatures falling to 69 F by Thursday, mostly sunny skies will allow high temperatures to reach the upper-seventies starting Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.
Low temperatures will also rise, but still remain below forty degrees, leading to quintessential Colorado early fall weather with warm sunny days and crisp cool nights, ideal for both producing and viewing the fall color spectacle.
So enjoy the perfect weather window this week, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative Thursday afternoon to see if this lasts through next weekend.
Storm to arrive Saturday afternoon
Thursday, September 19, 2024
A beautiful day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday midafternoon with cloudless skies and temperatures in the low seventies, around our average of 73 F. The colors are starting to change, and so is our weather, with another beautiful day Friday followed by a cold front Saturday afternoon. We may see the season’s first snowfall near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort by Sunday morning, just in time for the Autumnal Equinox, occurring first thing Sunday at 6:43 am.
A storm moving through Vancouver is forecast to nudge an eddy of low pressure off the central California coast eastward through the weekend, first moving across Las Vegas on Friday, the Four Corners on Saturday, and then northeast Colorado on Sunday as it is deflected to the northeast by a ridge of high pressure over Texas. This is slower than even the slowest weather forecast predicted in my last weather narrative, and the timing may still be too fast.
Right now, the Vancouver storm is forecast to drag a cold front through our area Saturday afternoon which will interact with the approaching eddy. Moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the eddy and behind the Texas ridge, and eventually wrap over our area by later Saturday. We should start the day sunny, but increasing clouds with gusty easterly winds will interact with the cold front to start showers by the afternoon or evening.
Precipitation should become moderate at times through the night, with snow levels dropping from above 12,000′ before the cold front Saturday morning to below 10,000′ by Sunday morning. We may wake up Sunday morning to the season’s first high-elevation snowfall, though it may be hard to see behind clouds that should clear behind the storm during Sunday. Be sure to check the Steamboat Powdercam on the SnowAlarm home page to see any evidence!
High temperatures will fall into the low sixties on Sunday, and there may be some sunshine along with possible afternoon showers in the unstable air mass, though some weather forecast models are drier than others.
Day length is changing quickly, and we are losing about seven minutes of daylight a week at the start of the day and twelve minutes at the end, so be sure to take advantage of a nice Friday and the first half of Saturday. Another storm is forecast to move through Vancouver late Sunday and possibly affect our weather during the start of the work week, and I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Two storms to affect our weather this week
Sunday, September 15, 2024
After a spectacular couple of sunny days, cloudy skies greeted Steamboat Springs this Sunday with temperatures reaching the low-seventies as of early afternoon. Though the skies look threatening, rainfall will have a hard time reaching the ground today, with a better chance on Monday and good chances on a cool Tuesday ahead of a cold front. High temperatures in the upper sixties will persist for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another storm for the end of the workweek.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana to our south and an approaching storm over the California and Oregon coasts to our west will dominate our weather through midweek. Moisture from Ileana has been carried over our area by winds from the southwest ahead of the West Coast storm. Another developing storm in the Gulf of Alaska will start forcing the West Coast storm eastward. It is forecast to wobble through the Great Basin on Monday and be deflected to our northeast on Tuesday before reaching Montana on Wednesday and the southern Canadian Plains on Thursday.
High temperatures should be in the low seventies on Monday after a mostly sunny start to the day, near our average of 74 F. Energy ejecting out ahead of the approaching storm will combine with the tropical moisture for afternoon and evening shower chances.
Those chances become likely Tuesday thanks to a lobe of energy rotating around the storm and moving overhead. High temperatures will fall to the mid-sixties, almost ten degrees below average on a breezy, showery day punctuated by a cold front moving through in the afternoon.
Moisture will be swept from our area behind the departing storm for a dry Wednesday and a few degrees of warming. Snow levels will fall to 10,000′ behind the front Tuesday night, and if moisture can hang on there may be some snowflakes at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. If skies clear by Wednesday morning, the Yampa Valley could see low temperatures just below freezing, about five degrees below our average of 35 F, especially in the low-lying areas.
Meanwhile, the next storm is forecast to have moved southward along the West Coast, and winds from the southwest ahead of the storm will allow high temperatures to rise toward seventy degrees on a dry Thursday.
There is agreement among the weather forecast model that the next storm will be colder and drier, but disagreement on how quickly the center moves eastward across the Desert Southwest. The American GFS has showers breaking out on Friday ahead of the storm, while the European ECMWF is a half-day behind. If we don’t see a dusting of snow on Mt. Werner on Wednesday morning, the first high-elevation snowfall of the season may be visible by Saturday morning.
Enjoy the last full week of the summer season as the Autumnal Equinox occurs next Sunday at 6:43 am, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the developing next storm.
Temperatures to warm for the weekend after a fall-like Friday
Thursday, September 12, 2024
After an intense early afternoon thunderstorm yesterday dropped temperatures ten degrees in ten minutes and twenty degrees in about forty-five minutes, along with almost a half-inch of rain near the Steamboat Ski Resort, mostly sunny skies with temperatures near eighty degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area this breezy Thursday afternoon. The winds are in advance of a grazing cold front tonight that will bring a fall-like chill to the air on Friday under sunny skies before temperatures rebound under continued mostly sunny skies for much of the weekend.
A large area of low pressure over the West is centered over northern Montana while a storm is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska and a tropical storm approaches southern Baja. The Montana storm was deflected to our northeast by the summertime ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of North America, save for the remnants of former hurricane Francine now spinning over the southern Mississippi Valley. Gusty winds from the southwest along the southern part of the Montana storm will end as a cold front brushes our area tonight, dropping Friday morning low temperatures toward freezing, around five degrees below our average of 37 F, and perhaps below that in the favored low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley near river drainages.
Tomorrow will be a bright sunny day, but it will feel fall-like after the crisp morning start and high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees, about five degrees below our average. But temperatures quickly recover by a mostly sunny Saturday reaching several degrees above average behind the departing storm.
Unfortunately, smoke is forecast to be carried from the Line wildfire in southern California and assorted wildfires in Idaho over our area for hazy skies starting today and continuing into the weekend. Please check the latest NOAA smoke plume forecast model, which is run four times a day out to forty-eight hours, for the latest guidance.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to ingest cold air from Alaska and move southward along the West Coast through the weekend, reaching northern California by Monday. As the storm moves southward, moisture from the Baja storm is drawn northward in the southwest winds ahead of the storm. It trickles into our area by Sunday afternoon, bringing only a slight chance for an afternoon storm with continued above-average temperatures.
Next week will hold a fair bit of weather excitement as the Alaska storm approaches our area early in the workweek, followed by an even colder storm later in the week. Enjoy the numbered late-summer days of the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the active weather next week.
Modest shower chances through midweek ahead of dry cool front around Friday
Sunday, September 8, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-sixties under sunny skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. Mostly sunny skies with only the slightest chance of a late-day shower will last through the start of the workweek with high temperatures around eighty degrees. Wednesday will see better chances for some afternoon and evening storms thanks to an approaching storm that will weaken as it approaches our area. Winds will pick up on Thursday and Friday ahead of and behind a dry cool front forecast for Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over most of the country is sandwiched between two areas of deep low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the Northeast while a much weaker storm is moving across Idaho. The weak storm will flatten the ridge over the Rocky Mountains and introduce a trickle of Pacific moisture which will do little to temper the near eighty-degree high temperatures through Tuesday, several degrees above our average of 76 F. But we should see some increasing afternoon clouds through then with only slight chances of a passing shower.
Unfortunately, the NOAA Smoke plume forecast shows winds rotating around the high to carry some smoke from the Line wildfire in the San Bernardino Mountains east of Los Angeles towards and possibly over our area, with hazy skies predicted for Monday. The forecast runs four times a day and extends to forty-eight hours, so check that to see if the hazy skies persist.
By Wednesday, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to deepen as it moves over the Pacific Northwest. Energy ejecting out of the storm is forecast to move overhead on Wednesday bringing better Pacific moisture and good chances for some afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will drop to several degrees below average thanks to the increasing cloud cover.
By Thursday, the ridge will be considerably weakened as it deflects the storm through Idaho. The Pacific moisture from Wednesday will replaced with dry air from the Desert Southwest as winds increase from the southwest. As mostly sunny skies return, high temperatures will rebound by several degrees from Wednesday.
But the weakened ridge will win this battle as the approaching storm is further deflected into Montana by Friday, dragging a dry cool front through our area sometime between late Thursday and Friday. Breezy and dry weather will make Friday feel like our second fall-like day of the season with high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees.
And as usual a day after a cool front, Saturday morning low temperatures will likely be the coolest of the season so far, approaching freezing in the low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley. Next weekend currently looks gorgeous with sunny skies and high temperatures back to average. However, another storm currently near Japan may bring a storm strong enough to defeat the ridge early in the following workweek and bring the first snow of the season to the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
Enjoy the late-summer start to the week as the colors of fall are starting to appear in the trees and underbrush around the area, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the weekend weather and the approaching storm.
