Snow chances to last through Christmas week
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Temperatures have warmed toward thirty degrees in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies late this Sunday morning, matching the temperature near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This stretch of beautiful weather ends today as a series of Pacific waves brings snowfall chances to our area starting tonight and lasting through Christmas week, with a dry Tuesday facilitating any Christmas Eve travel.
A storm deflected into Montana has weakened the ridge of high pressure over the West which was responsible for our beautiful weather through the winter solstice, which occurred at 2:21 am on Saturday and marked the longest night of the year. However, a sprawling low pressure area extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia, and a series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific.
The first wave of the holiday week will be the weakest and bring increasing clouds through the rest of today. Light snow showers could begin as soon as midnight tonight and continue through Monday evening, with maybe an inch or two possible by the Monday morning ski report at mid-mountain according to the more optimistic weather forecast model, and an additional 1-4” possible by Tuesday morning.
A brief ridge of high pressure will bring periods of sun on Tuesday for favorable travel conditions before a more promising storm crosses the West Coast during the day. Christmas Day may start dry, but snow showers should begin by the late morning or early afternoon and continue into Thursday morning, becoming heaviest in the afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts are still uncertain since the storm splits as it crosses the Great Basin on Tuesday, similar to the earlier European ECMWF solution I discussed in my last weather narrative, but the southern end of the split will fortunately carry the bulk of the storm’s energy and moisture across Colorado.
I would expect 4-8” of snow for the Thursday morning report at mid-mountain, with a brief break on Thursday ahead of a continuing series of waves that bring snowfall chances starting Thursday afternoon or evening and lasting into Saturday morning. All of these waves will be relatively weak and fast-moving, but they occur in favorable winds from the northwest, which means snowfall accumulations could quickly add up.
The timing and strength of these waves are still in question, so enjoy the snow that does come during Christmas and I’ll have more details about what follows in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
