Cold front to arrive tonight with some snow Monday and Tuesday
Sunday, December 8, 2024
A broken cloud deck ahead of a strong cold front tonight is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon with temperatures only in the low twenties. Dry air just ahead of the front should lead to mostly sunny afternoon skies, but we could see snowflakes as soon as tonight, with most of the accumulations behind the front occurring between Monday and Tuesday noon. A ridge of high pressure then temporarily builds to our west while a storm deepens over the Midwest keeping winds from the northwest and a mix of sun and clouds overhead through the rest of the workweek.
A splitting trough of low pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest through Montana, with the western half of the split forecast to move southward through the Great Basin, bringing a cold front through our area tonight. While we should see mostly sunny afternoon skies ahead of the front, snowflakes could be associated with the front tonight. Sadly, the short-range weather forecast models disagree on snowfall amounts for the entire duration of the storm through Tuesday afternoon, forcing my admittedly broad snowfall estimates.
There could be an inch or two of snow reported at mid-mountain Monday morning at the Steamboat Ski Resort based upon the more optimistic model, though accumulating snowfall will more likely wait until after the report with 1-4” possible by sunset as winds turn to be from the favorable northwest direction behind the front. But there is not a lot of moisture associated with the front, and combined with an even drier reinforcing surge of cold air early Tuesday, there could be another inch or two overnight Monday and 1-4” during the day Tuesday.
Ironically, the cold front will break the strong temperature inversion in the Yampa Valley, with low temperatures in town rising from the low single digits to the low-teens, finally above our average of 7 F. But the relief will be brief as high temperatures behind the front on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be in the high teens or low twenties, over ten degrees below our average of 31 F.
By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build temporarily over the West Coast. Our storm will recombine with the eastern half of its split and more cold air from the Canadian Plains, producing a deep and cold area of low pressure over the Midwest. The resultant northwest flow over our area will contain some moisture keeping the cool air, average temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds around through Thursday.
Meanwhile, incoming Pacific energy is forecast to cross the West Coast on Thursday and move the ridge toward our area while weakening it, likely keeping our area dry. However, more incoming Pacific energy may bring snowfall chances back to our area next weekend or soon after.
Let’s hope for the more optimistic side of the early week snowfall forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on what we may expect for next weekend.
