Monster storm to start Tuesday after moderate storm today
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Light snow is falling in Steamboat Springs late this Sunday morning with temperatures hovering in the low thirties. A cold front will bring moderate snowfall accumulations through tonight preceding a break in the weather on Monday. But it will be short-lived as moderate to heavy snows on Tuesday and Wednesday bring significant accumulations to all elevations making travel difficult or even impossible at times over Rabbit Ears Pass.
A wave of energy ejected from the decaying bomb cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast will combine with the remnants of an atmospheric river and bring a cold front and moderate snow through our area this afternoon and evening. Total accumulations should be between four and eight inches at and above mid-mountain with one to four inches in town.
A break in the weather on Monday will bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-thirties, around our average of 37 F. But don’t be fooled by the nice day; the Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to move slowly south through Monday before grudgingly being forced eastward by a wave of energy and cold air moving across Alaska. Additionally, another atmospheric river moving across the southern Sierras, much wetter than the last, will be ingested by the storm as it approaches our area early Tuesday.
Light snow should start falling after midnight on Monday before the firehose of moisture produces moderate to heavy snows thanks to westerly winds impinging on the Park Range. Snowfall rates around an inch per hour and increasing winds with gusts above 30 mph will make travel hazardous over Rabbit Ears Pass by Tuesday afternoon.
The storm will stretch to the southwest as it moves across the Great Basin later Tuesday, bringing a moderate cold front that will force even heavier snowfall rates approaching two inches per hour at times. Travel over Rabbit Ears Pass will likely degrade further and perhaps become impossible from later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The heaviest snowfall should be over by Wednesday afternoon, though snowfall will likely linger through Thanksgiving morning as the rest of the stretched storm passes overhead. Total snowfall accumulations will be impressive, with mid-mountain and above seeing 1-2′ by Wednesday morning and another 6-12” by Thanksgiving morning. The warmer temperatures in town, especially Tuesday afternoon with high temperatures just above freezing, will limit the accumulations to 3-6” by Wednesday morning with another 1-4” during the day and overnight.
There may be some sun by Thanksgiving afternoon illuminating the new wintry landscape, especially in town, as a ridge of high pressure ahead of a strong storm forecast to develop south of the Aleutian Islands moves eastward. There is some weather forecast model uncertainty regarding a wave moving around the periphery of the ridge that may bring cooler air and snow showers by Friday or Saturday, but I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative Thursday afternoon.
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