Two storms to affect our weather this week
Sunday, September 15, 2024
After a spectacular couple of sunny days, cloudy skies greeted Steamboat Springs this Sunday with temperatures reaching the low-seventies as of early afternoon. Though the skies look threatening, rainfall will have a hard time reaching the ground today, with a better chance on Monday and good chances on a cool Tuesday ahead of a cold front. High temperatures in the upper sixties will persist for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another storm for the end of the workweek.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana to our south and an approaching storm over the California and Oregon coasts to our west will dominate our weather through midweek. Moisture from Ileana has been carried over our area by winds from the southwest ahead of the West Coast storm. Another developing storm in the Gulf of Alaska will start forcing the West Coast storm eastward. It is forecast to wobble through the Great Basin on Monday and be deflected to our northeast on Tuesday before reaching Montana on Wednesday and the southern Canadian Plains on Thursday.
High temperatures should be in the low seventies on Monday after a mostly sunny start to the day, near our average of 74 F. Energy ejecting out ahead of the approaching storm will combine with the tropical moisture for afternoon and evening shower chances.
Those chances become likely Tuesday thanks to a lobe of energy rotating around the storm and moving overhead. High temperatures will fall to the mid-sixties, almost ten degrees below average on a breezy, showery day punctuated by a cold front moving through in the afternoon.
Moisture will be swept from our area behind the departing storm for a dry Wednesday and a few degrees of warming. Snow levels will fall to 10,000′ behind the front Tuesday night, and if moisture can hang on there may be some snowflakes at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. If skies clear by Wednesday morning, the Yampa Valley could see low temperatures just below freezing, about five degrees below our average of 35 F, especially in the low-lying areas.
Meanwhile, the next storm is forecast to have moved southward along the West Coast, and winds from the southwest ahead of the storm will allow high temperatures to rise toward seventy degrees on a dry Thursday.
There is agreement among the weather forecast model that the next storm will be colder and drier, but disagreement on how quickly the center moves eastward across the Desert Southwest. The American GFS has showers breaking out on Friday ahead of the storm, while the European ECMWF is a half-day behind. If we don’t see a dusting of snow on Mt. Werner on Wednesday morning, the first high-elevation snowfall of the season may be visible by Saturday morning.
Enjoy the last full week of the summer season as the Autumnal Equinox occurs next Sunday at 6:43 am, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the developing next storm.
Temperatures to warm for the weekend after a fall-like Friday
Thursday, September 12, 2024
After an intense early afternoon thunderstorm yesterday dropped temperatures ten degrees in ten minutes and twenty degrees in about forty-five minutes, along with almost a half-inch of rain near the Steamboat Ski Resort, mostly sunny skies with temperatures near eighty degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area this breezy Thursday afternoon. The winds are in advance of a grazing cold front tonight that will bring a fall-like chill to the air on Friday under sunny skies before temperatures rebound under continued mostly sunny skies for much of the weekend.
A large area of low pressure over the West is centered over northern Montana while a storm is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska and a tropical storm approaches southern Baja. The Montana storm was deflected to our northeast by the summertime ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of North America, save for the remnants of former hurricane Francine now spinning over the southern Mississippi Valley. Gusty winds from the southwest along the southern part of the Montana storm will end as a cold front brushes our area tonight, dropping Friday morning low temperatures toward freezing, around five degrees below our average of 37 F, and perhaps below that in the favored low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley near river drainages.
Tomorrow will be a bright sunny day, but it will feel fall-like after the crisp morning start and high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees, about five degrees below our average. But temperatures quickly recover by a mostly sunny Saturday reaching several degrees above average behind the departing storm.
Unfortunately, smoke is forecast to be carried from the Line wildfire in southern California and assorted wildfires in Idaho over our area for hazy skies starting today and continuing into the weekend. Please check the latest NOAA smoke plume forecast model, which is run four times a day out to forty-eight hours, for the latest guidance.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to ingest cold air from Alaska and move southward along the West Coast through the weekend, reaching northern California by Monday. As the storm moves southward, moisture from the Baja storm is drawn northward in the southwest winds ahead of the storm. It trickles into our area by Sunday afternoon, bringing only a slight chance for an afternoon storm with continued above-average temperatures.
Next week will hold a fair bit of weather excitement as the Alaska storm approaches our area early in the workweek, followed by an even colder storm later in the week. Enjoy the numbered late-summer days of the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the active weather next week.
Modest shower chances through midweek ahead of dry cool front around Friday
Sunday, September 8, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-sixties under sunny skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. Mostly sunny skies with only the slightest chance of a late-day shower will last through the start of the workweek with high temperatures around eighty degrees. Wednesday will see better chances for some afternoon and evening storms thanks to an approaching storm that will weaken as it approaches our area. Winds will pick up on Thursday and Friday ahead of and behind a dry cool front forecast for Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over most of the country is sandwiched between two areas of deep low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the Northeast while a much weaker storm is moving across Idaho. The weak storm will flatten the ridge over the Rocky Mountains and introduce a trickle of Pacific moisture which will do little to temper the near eighty-degree high temperatures through Tuesday, several degrees above our average of 76 F. But we should see some increasing afternoon clouds through then with only slight chances of a passing shower.
Unfortunately, the NOAA Smoke plume forecast shows winds rotating around the high to carry some smoke from the Line wildfire in the San Bernardino Mountains east of Los Angeles towards and possibly over our area, with hazy skies predicted for Monday. The forecast runs four times a day and extends to forty-eight hours, so check that to see if the hazy skies persist.
By Wednesday, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to deepen as it moves over the Pacific Northwest. Energy ejecting out of the storm is forecast to move overhead on Wednesday bringing better Pacific moisture and good chances for some afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will drop to several degrees below average thanks to the increasing cloud cover.
By Thursday, the ridge will be considerably weakened as it deflects the storm through Idaho. The Pacific moisture from Wednesday will replaced with dry air from the Desert Southwest as winds increase from the southwest. As mostly sunny skies return, high temperatures will rebound by several degrees from Wednesday.
But the weakened ridge will win this battle as the approaching storm is further deflected into Montana by Friday, dragging a dry cool front through our area sometime between late Thursday and Friday. Breezy and dry weather will make Friday feel like our second fall-like day of the season with high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees.
And as usual a day after a cool front, Saturday morning low temperatures will likely be the coolest of the season so far, approaching freezing in the low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley. Next weekend currently looks gorgeous with sunny skies and high temperatures back to average. However, another storm currently near Japan may bring a storm strong enough to defeat the ridge early in the following workweek and bring the first snow of the season to the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
Enjoy the late-summer start to the week as the colors of fall are starting to appear in the trees and underbrush around the area, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the weekend weather and the approaching storm.
Weekend to see mostly sunny skies and eighty-degree temperatures
Thursday, September 5, 2024
It’s starting to feel fall-like in Steamboat Springs after storms associated with the cool front yesterday brought as much as a half-inch of precipitation to parts of town and temperatures reaching only about seventy degrees by this Thursday mid-afternoon. But mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming to around eighty degrees will be with us through the weekend with only the slightest chance of late-day showers after Friday.
We are starting to see the battle of the air masses play out over our area as cold air from the northern latitudes encroaches on the warm air over the mid-latitudes. The air behind yesterday’s cool front will quickly modify this weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West. High temperatures will warm to near our average of 77 F on Friday and around eighty degrees on Saturday under mostly sunny skies, with low temperatures near our average of 39 F.
Pacific energy rotating through a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will weaken as it crosses the West Coast on Saturday and interacts with the ridge of high pressure. There may be a trickle of Pacific moisture and perhaps monsoonal moisture as the high pressure gets nudged eastward, but dry air over our area will limit its effects to some afternoon clouds and only the slightest chance of a shower that would produce more wind than rain.
Another storm currently over the Bering Sea is forecast to split to some degree over the Gulf of Alaska during the weekend, and as it moves eastward it will also push the weakening West Coast storm eastward. There may be a slightly better chance of late-day showers to start the workweek as moisture modestly increases, but significant rain currently looks unlikely.
So enjoy the beautiful first weekend of meteorological fall, which runs from September through November, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the moisture to start next week.
Showers likely ahead of cool front to arrive Wednesday
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Steamboat Springs is enjoying a gorgeous Labor Day weekend, with temperatures approaching eighty degrees under cloudless skies this Sunday noon. A trickle of monsoon moisture will bring some clouds later today and more clouds on Monday afternoon, with only the slightest chance of an afternoon shower on Labor Day. A passing storm will bring a better chance of showers later Tuesday and Wednesday as a cool front sweeps through the region before sunny weather returns for the end of the work week and heading into the following weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is flanked by broad areas of low pressure over Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Alaska, and an eddy of low pressure just off the northern California coast. A wave of energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska will force both the eddy and ridge of high pressure eastward, eventually merging with the eddy on Labor Day as it crosses the West Coast.
As the high pressure moves east, monsoonal moisture will be carried northward by southerly winds on the backside of the high. This will be nothing like the monsoon events of August, which ended up leaving almost a half-inch more moisture than our monthly average of 1.8”, but will be more of a trickle, creating some clouds this afternoon and more clouds and a small chance of a passing shower later on Labor Day. Clouds and showers will be more likely closer to the source of the monsoon moisture to our south.
But the clouds won’t derail our high temperatures, expected to be in the low-eighties through Tuesday, almost five degrees above our falling average of 78 F. By late Tuesday, the eddy is forecast to be moving through Idaho, bringing a better chance of some late-day showers that could last through the night.
As the eddy moves through Wyoming on Wednesday, a cool front will graze our area, continuing the chance of showers and dropping our high temperature into the mid-seventies. There is dry air behind the front, so showers should quickly end, though there is some weather forecast model disagreement on whether that occurs in the afternoon or evening.
Clearing skies after a cool front means we can look forward to a cool Thursday morning with temperatures in the upper-thirties, around our average of 39 F, similar to the setup last Friday morning when the low temperature reached a chilly 36 F behind a grazing cool front. But the sunny days return with continued high temperatures in the mid-seventies, and look to last into the coming weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West behind the passing midweek disturbance.
Enjoy the pleasant weather for the rest of the long Labor Day weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see how long the dry weather may stick around.
