Hot, hot, hot this weekend
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Though some afternoon clouds are trying to temper the heat, temperatures are already in the upper-eighties under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon. And we can expect even warmer temperatures with a nine handle through the weekend for the hottest days of the summer so far.
A ridge of high pressure currently over the West is sandwiched between areas of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and the Great Lakes. A storm moving through the northern Canadian Plains will keep the ridge from amplifying further while nudging it eastward and toward our area this weekend.
The associated heat dome under the ridge means the hottest temperatures of the season so far will be with us this weekend, with high temperatures of ninety degrees or a bit more, almost ten degrees above our average of 83 F. But our daily records in the mid-nineties do not look to be challenged by this heat wave.
Mostly sunny mornings will accompany the heat, and after a mostly sunny Friday, there may be afternoon clouds around on Saturday with the slightest chance of an isolated shower as the intense heating of the ground lifts some meager moisture trapped under the ridge.
Thankfully, mostly clear skies will allow the overnight temperatures to drop to around fifty degrees, around five degrees above our average of 46 F.
More Pacific energy forecast to cross the British Columbia coast late in the weekend should nudge the West Coast ridge eastward on Sunday. Light winds from the south on the backside of the ridge are forecast to carry moisture pooling over the Mexican Plateau over our area by Sunday afternoon in a classic North American Monsoonal pattern, which usually gets going this time of year.
So we should see some more clouds and a slightly better chance for an isolated shower on Sunday, with those chances and coverage increasing to start the work week. Right now, the weather forecast models show only modest moisture through midweek before the West Coast ridge rebounds ahead of another Gulf of Alaska storm and cuts off the limited monsoonal moisture supply.
But subtle changes in the position of the ridge of high pressure over the West can change this forecast, and I’ll have the latest details in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
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