Sunny skies and warming temperatures to start the weekend
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Temperatures around twenty degrees at all elevations and bluebird skies are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday at noon. Warming temperatures and sunny skies will last through Saturday before increasing clouds on Sunday foreshadow a pattern change that will bring a series of storms overhead through Christmas week.
A ridge of high pressure has built over the West ahead of a sprawling low pressure area extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia. A series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific, first weakening the ridge of high pressure overhead before moving it toward eastern North America.
The first wave strong enough to weaken the ridge will cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Saturday before traveling across Montana on Sunday. So the beautiful weather with mostly sunny skies should continue through Saturday, with the high temperature reaching near forty degrees in town, over ten degrees above our average of 29 F, and thirty degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
The wave will bring cooler air for Sunday, with high temperatures dropping several degrees along with some breezes ahead of the next stronger wave currently promising increasing clouds during the day and light snow showers beginning as early as Sunday night. The light snow should continue through Monday, becoming heaviest Monday night, before the storm passes ahead of a quick-moving ridge of high pressure which should bring nice weather for Tuesday.
Right now, a stronger storm, perhaps the remnants of the northern Pacific low pressure area, is forecast for around Christmas Day, though there is weather forecast model uncertainty as to whether the storm splits and weakens, according to the European ECMWF, or remains stronger and more cohesive, according to the American GFS.
So enjoy the beautiful start to the weekend, and I’ll have more details about the impending pattern change for Christmas week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Dry and warmer weather to follow small storms later today and Tuesday
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies this Sunday noon. A couple of small storms will bring chances for snow later today and Tuesday with nice weather for Monday and midweek lasting into the weekend.
We’ve had the warmest morning in town since the end of November with a low temperature of twenty degrees, almost fifteen degrees above our average of 6 F, thanks to overnight clouds acting like a blanket. A piece of the approaching storm brought some snow showers last evening, and more snow showers should arrive later today and tonight as the rest of the storm passes to our north, with 1-4” possible at mid-mountain.
A quick-moving ridge of high pressure on Monday ahead of our next storm, which is currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska, will bring a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, though clearing by Monday morning means another cold start to the day.
The next storm is moving in from the Pacific Northwest, a more favorable direction than this last storm which crossed California, thanks to moisture sneaking through first the Cascades along the Columbia River Basin and then the Boise River Basin, rather than being interrupted by the Sierra Nevadas.
Snow showers should start before noon on Tuesday and continue through the day and evening as winds shift to be from our favorable northwest direction. We could see 2-5” reported at mid-mountain for the Wednesday morning ski report if the storm keeps trending in the more favorable direction.
Meanwhile, a large and complex storm is forecast to develop over the Aleutian Islands, forcing a ridge of high pressure to build ahead of the storm. Pieces of energy ejecting from the storm will keep the ridge moving eastward and toward our area, bringing mostly sunny skies by Wednesday. Temperatures will warm at the higher elevations, though clear skies and light winds may redevelop a pesky temperature inversion and keep the Yampa Valley on the cool side, with high temperatures in the thirties, compared to our average of 30 F.
A grazing wave moving over the top of the high pressure ridge may influence our weather on Thursday, with current forecasts keeping us dry and breezy, which may help mix the cold air at the bottom of the Yampa Valley, breaking the temperature inversion and allowing high temperatures to approach the forties.
That Aleutian storm is forecast to move eastward, and may eventually help the weather pattern become colder and wetter as energy ejecting out of the storm begins interacting with the ridge of high pressure over the West near the end of next weekend or early the following workweek.
So enjoy the snow that we do get, and of course the nice weather after the storms, and I’ll have more details on the possible pattern change in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Some snow to bookend a pleasant Saturday
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Temperatures are in the low twenties in town and mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under bluebird skies this Thursday noon. A pleasant Saturday will be sandwiched by two storms with limited moisture, bringing some snowfall on Friday and Sunday.
The early week storm produced 7.5” at mid-mountain between Sunday and Tuesday evenings, with 19” up top thanks to cold, unstable and just-moist-enough flow from the west and our favorable northwest direction. In fact, 4” of snow was recorded in just 40 minutes at the Steamboat Powdercam during the heaviest shower just before sunset on Monday.
The clear skies and calm winds Wednesday night led to another temperature inversion this morning, with my weather station near the base of the ski area recording a low of -2 F compared to the low of 15 F at the Storm Peak Lab, as breezes from the west and southwest warmed the higher elevations.
An approaching storm now over the West Coast will bring a chance of light snow starting around noon on Friday and lasting into the evening, with accumulations expected to be 1-4” at mid-mountain.
A quick-moving ridge of high pressure behind the departing storm and ahead of a storm forecast to develop off the West Coast on Friday will be overhead on Saturday for a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies. The storm is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Great Basin on Saturday, but enough moisture should be left to bring another 3-6” of accumulations at mid-mountain between early Sunday morning and Sunday evening.
Another storm is forecast to develop south of the Aleutian Islands during the weekend as subtropical moisture mixes with some cold air breaking away from eastern Siberia. High pressure ridging ahead of the eastward-moving storm should bring a dry start to the workweek with snow chances beginning as early as Tuesday as the Aleutian storm approaches.
Enjoy the nice Saturday and the new snow on either side, and I’ll have more details about the midweek storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Cold front to arrive tonight with some snow Monday and Tuesday
Sunday, December 8, 2024
A broken cloud deck ahead of a strong cold front tonight is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon with temperatures only in the low twenties. Dry air just ahead of the front should lead to mostly sunny afternoon skies, but we could see snowflakes as soon as tonight, with most of the accumulations behind the front occurring between Monday and Tuesday noon. A ridge of high pressure then temporarily builds to our west while a storm deepens over the Midwest keeping winds from the northwest and a mix of sun and clouds overhead through the rest of the workweek.
A splitting trough of low pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest through Montana, with the western half of the split forecast to move southward through the Great Basin, bringing a cold front through our area tonight. While we should see mostly sunny afternoon skies ahead of the front, snowflakes could be associated with the front tonight. Sadly, the short-range weather forecast models disagree on snowfall amounts for the entire duration of the storm through Tuesday afternoon, forcing my admittedly broad snowfall estimates.
There could be an inch or two of snow reported at mid-mountain Monday morning at the Steamboat Ski Resort based upon the more optimistic model, though accumulating snowfall will more likely wait until after the report with 1-4” possible by sunset as winds turn to be from the favorable northwest direction behind the front. But there is not a lot of moisture associated with the front, and combined with an even drier reinforcing surge of cold air early Tuesday, there could be another inch or two overnight Monday and 1-4” during the day Tuesday.
Ironically, the cold front will break the strong temperature inversion in the Yampa Valley, with low temperatures in town rising from the low single digits to the low-teens, finally above our average of 7 F. But the relief will be brief as high temperatures behind the front on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be in the high teens or low twenties, over ten degrees below our average of 31 F.
By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build temporarily over the West Coast. Our storm will recombine with the eastern half of its split and more cold air from the Canadian Plains, producing a deep and cold area of low pressure over the Midwest. The resultant northwest flow over our area will contain some moisture keeping the cool air, average temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds around through Thursday.
Meanwhile, incoming Pacific energy is forecast to cross the West Coast on Thursday and move the ridge toward our area while weakening it, likely keeping our area dry. However, more incoming Pacific energy may bring snowfall chances back to our area next weekend or soon after.
Let’s hope for the more optimistic side of the early week snowfall forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on what we may expect for next weekend.
Beautiful weather to continue through Saturday
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Another bluebird day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday noon with temperatures in the mid-twenties in town and upper-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Similar weather is expected through Saturday before an incoming storm brings precipitation chances as early as Sunday and colder temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over most of the West while a large storm is located over the Aleutian Islands. Energy ejecting from the storm will weaken the ridge of high pressure and allow the storm’s remnants to begin affecting the Pacific Northwest on Saturday as it moves across the Gulf of Alaska. That means continued beautiful weather through at least the beginning of the weekend, with cold mornings in town thanks to the persistence of a temperature inversion caused by clear nighttime skies, calm winds and recent snow cover.
The storm is expected to mix with cold air from western Canada and split as it moves through the Great Basin on Sunday, with weather forecast models indicating uncertainty regarding how much cold air makes it over our area on Sunday. The larger-scale and longer-term models have the cold air staying away from our area on Sunday, while the medium-scale, medium-term model have a cold front moving through by Sunday afternoon.
We will see snow with the cold front, whether it moves in on Sunday or Monday, though amounts at this time look quite modest due to the quick movement of the storm and its limited moisture. What is more certain is that the cold front will first break the low-level temperature inversion thanks to increased winds and the resultant mechanical mixing which brings warmer air aloft down to the surface. But any relief will be short-lived as the very cold air settles overhead on Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures in town only in the low-twenties or high-teens, well below our 31 F average.
I’m reserving a snowfall guess for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon as forecast amounts are inconsistent both between and within the various weather forecast models. Until then, be sure to enjoy this stretch of beautiful early-December weather.
