Snow tonight and possibly Saturday

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Your snow dances are working! What looked like a dry Wednesday night into Thursday morning in Steamboat Springs has turned into a snowy forecast, as energy moving southward along the east side of a dominant West Coast ridge has trended further west these last few days. The end result is a couple of weak waves will move over our area tonight and early Thursday morning, leaving 2-4” for the Thursday morning report with another inch or two possible during the morning.

Sunny skies will return for later Thursday and Friday ahead of another possible storm weak storm on Saturday. Numerical weather models have uncharacteristically diverged with the Saturday forecast, with some bringing snow into northern Colorado Saturday morning while others keep us dry as they split the storm around our area.

Whether the Saturday storm splits and the amount of energy partitioned between the northern and southern parts of the storm has implications for the remainder of the weekend and early next week. Unsettled weather could stick around from Saturday through Monday with generally light snow, there could be a stronger storm for Sunday, or no storm at all. At this point, I have no preference for any solution, so please be diligent in whatever you are doing to conjure up the snow.

Surprisingly, the weather models agree that nice weather will return for around next midweek ahead of a potentially large storm that may herald a pattern change for the West. This is the result of some cold Canadian air mixing with a storm in the Gulf of Alaska and forcing the western ridge of high pressure westward. A cold and snowy Christmas weekend is looking increasingly likely, though I’d like to get past the uncertainty surrounding this weekend before biting off on that forecast.

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• Posted at 12:05:30 PM in Steamboat forecast discussion
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Mostly sunny with some cooling for Monday, Thursday and Saturday

Sunday, December 10, 2017

A dominant and large ridge of high pressure over the West Coast has brought sunny skies to the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday. Waves of energy traveling over the top of the ridge will bring some cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds on Monday and Thursday, though the Yampa Valley will start off each day cool as the clear skies and low sun angle encourage a temperature inversion to form each night.

Rather than traveling over the top of the West Coast ridge, a pattern change may be in the offing around Saturday as a Pacific storm beats the ridge down. It is not yet clear how much of the Pacific storm will survive the battle with the ridge, but some clouds and snow showers are currently advertised for next weekend.

The unsettled weekend weather may last into the following Monday before the numerical weather models have a much stronger and more promising storm moving into California around mid next week. While forecasts generally become far more uncertain after about a week, there is agreement that this storm will mix with some cold air from Canada. This may allow wintry weather to settle over the western states heading into Christmas weekend, especially if the West Coast ridge rebuilds further west into the Gulf of Alaska as is currently advertised.

• Posted at 1:03:23 PM in Steamboat forecast discussion
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Gorgeous weekend on tap

Thursday, December 7, 2017

The current wintry conditions in Steamboat Springs will last through today before the sun returns for most of the next week. Several more inches of snow are possible through about midnight tonight as more cold air slides southward along the eastern periphery of a large and dominant ridge of high pressure centered over the West Coast.

With the new snow cover, temperature inversions, where temperatures increase with elevation, have formed in the Yampa Valley and will continue for the next several days as clear nighttime skies will allow the surface to efficiently cool. Additionally, the West Coast ridge is forecast to expand eastward, bringing warmer air to the higher elevations. The combination of a low sun angle, cold surface temperatures and warm mountain temperatures makes the atmosphere very stable and inhibits any vertical mixing that may bring the warmer air aloft down to the surface.

The end result will be the Yampa Valley will be slower to warm than the mountains under the sunny skies that are forecast for Friday and the weekend.

There are three waves of energy traveling over the top of the ridge that may help to drag some cooler air into northern Colorado on Monday, Wednesday and later Thursday as the West Coast ridge periodically retreats to our west. The Monday wave will bring a slight cool down under mostly sunny skies, while the Wednesday wave may only bring some clouds.

The strongest and moistest of the waves is currently timed for later Thursday and is advertised to bring some light snow to our area. It should be noted that the boundary between the warm and dry air to our west and the cold and moist air to our east will be very sensitive to the track of these waves, so the forecast can easily move to either the warmer and drier side or the cooler and moister side, especially after the dry Monday wave. In fact, the European ECMWF has the late Thursday wave much further west than the American GFS, so the forecast is quite uncertain for the end of the work week.

This of course leads to further forecast uncertainty for the following weekend. While the West Coast ridge is forecast to rebuild for a time, there are indications of a pattern change after that as incoming Pacific energy starts to break down the dominant West Coast ridge. This may allow for a more active weather regime starting around that weekend or the following work week.

• Posted at 1:40:15 PM in Steamboat forecast discussion
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Cold front first brings some snow tonight and then cold temperatures for the work week

Sunday, December 3, 2017

A strong cold front currently moving through Salt Lake City has brought southwest winds and clouds to the Steamboat Springs area this afternoon. The storm responsible for the front is forecast to split into several pieces, with the best moisture and forcing staying to our north. However, along with the much colder air, we will see precipitation with the storm through Monday night.

There may be some rain showers at the lower elevations and snow showers at higher elevations ahead of the front this evening, but snow levels will crash to the Yampa Valley floor when the front blasts through around midnight. There will be localized heavy and even intense snow showers with blowing snow along the front and for a few hours behind it, with several inches of fairly dense snow likely at the Steamboat Ski Area by the Monday morning report, and more further north and at higher elevations.

Snows will let up until picking back up again on a cold-feeling-but-near-average Monday morning as winds veer to our favorable northwest direction. While there is plenty of cold air aloft to keep the atmosphere unstable through Monday night, snows will turn more showery in the afternoon as moisture decreases. There may as much as 3-6” of very light and fluffy powder by the below-average and cold Tuesday morning report.

Snows will end by Tuesday morning as the storm moves east of Colorado. A very large and dominant West Coast ridge builds behind the storm, with warm and dry air to our west underneath the ridge, and cold and snowy weather to our east. Over Steamboat Springs, there may be some moderation in the temperatures on Wednesday before another push of cold air and possibly moisture travels southward along the east side of the West Coast ridge. At this point in the forecast, some light snow is possible along with colder temperatures and strong northerly winds on Thursday.

Winds may stay strong on Friday, though dry air infiltrates northern Colorado as the West Coast ridge expands eastward. Sunnier skies and warmer temperatures begin on Friday and look to last through next weekend. I’d like to say the West Coast ridge breaks down after than and brings the storm track back to Colorado, but current long-range forecasts keep the ridge intact through the following work week.

• Posted at 3:11:29 PM in Steamboat forecast discussion
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Cold front later Sunday brings some snow for early next week

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Ahead of a long-overdue storm that will begin affecting the Steamboat Springs area this weekend, more above normal daytime temperatures are expected. A sunny day today will be followed by a cool front that will graze northern Colorado on Friday, slightly lowering temperatures and increasing winds a bit.

Meanwhile a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska moves southeastward, crossing the central West Coast on Sunday. Winds will back to the southwest and moisture will increase bringing some clouds for Saturday in still above normal temperatures.

Rain showers at the lower elevations and snow showers at the higher elevations are possible by Sunday afternoon as some energy ejecting out of the storm travels over our area. Showers will turn to all snow when the cold front sweeps through the area Sunday night or Monday morning.

Numerical forecast models have struggled mightily with this storm, so there is even more uncertainty than usual for snow amounts early next week. We will have a better chance for accumulating snows as compared to the last 2 disappointing storms, with at least an inch or two likely for Monday through Tuesday, and possibly more if the storm tracks further south or west.

The forecast for cold air, however, has been far more consistent, with cooler temperatures hanging around through at least Tuesday.

Behind this storm, a building ridge of high pressure is forecast over the West Coast as this storm eventually mixes with some cold air from Canada and brings very cold temperatures to the eastern two thirds of the country. The Rocky Mountains will probably delineate the boundary between the warm and dry air under the western ridge and the much colder but still dry air to our east.

Our weather for next week will likely vacillate between warmer as the West Coast ridge expands eastward, and cooler as the West Coast ridge retreats westward. Right now, the forecast calls for some slight warming around midweek before a grazing storm may bring some more cold dry air over our area later Wednesday or Thursday.

The currently advertised eastward expansion of the West Coast ridge brings warming and more dry air to our area for the following weekend.

• Posted at 11:19:48 AM in Steamboat forecast discussion
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