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Return of winter still on track

Sunday, March 13, 2016

A large storm currently pounding the Pacific Northwest moves ashore tonight and will increase clouds over the Steamboat Springs area tonight. Snow showers on the hill should begin by sunrise, becoming moderate to heavy by noon as rain showers turn to snow showers in the valley. Winds will increase through the day becoming very windy and creating blowing snow, making travel difficult. Additionally, locally intense snowfall with the some thunder may be possible later in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes.

The surface cold front passes through later in the day and brings favorable wet, cool and windy northwesterly flow over our area overnight Monday. Current forecasts are pointing toward the possibility of as much as 8-16” by Tuesday morning, though some models have a drier mountain-top flow which may reduce accumulations by 2-4”.

The first part of the storm on Monday introduces a long duration event comprised of several waves of moderate to heavy snowfall that will last through the entire work week. Snowfall should continue Tuesday with current forecasts having as much as 5-10” of additional snow by Wednesday morning.

Snows will continue through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, continuing accumulations each day. Because most of the snow is being caused as air is lifted over the Park Range (i.e. orographic, or topological lift), accumulations will be less at lower elevations so the valley will see considerably less snow than the top of Mount Werner.

Total storm accumulations by Saturday morning should be impressive and may be more than two or three feet before the storm cycle is forecast to end by the weekend.

Steamboat Springs area short term weather forecast from Saturday night

Saturday, March 12, 2016

A larger and intense storm is currently affecting the Pacific Northwest. An ejecting wave on Sunday will stay mostly north and west of our area but will bring likely clouds and the small possibility of light showers for the late afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will increase overnight as the parent storm then moves ashore before a cold front passes through our area on Monday, bringing at least a short period of possibly intense snowfall and falling temperatures.

Favorable wet and cool northwesterly flow will keep breezy to windy conditions around during Monday as moderate to heavy snow occurs on the hill. Valleys will also see snow, though it will fall at much lighter amounts than on the mountain. Current forecasts are pointing toward the possibility of as much as 8-16” on Mount Werner by Tuesday morning with 4-8” in the valleys.

Current model trends as of Saturday night show a somewhat weaker storm on Monday evening which would decrease totals by 2-4”, but I’d like to see future iterations of the models before believing it.

Winter weather looks to continue through the work week as periodic waves embedded in moist northwest flow move over the area and bring surges of cold air and increased snowfall.

Steamboat Springs area short term weather forecast from Friday night

Friday, March 11, 2016

A compact storm crosses the California coast tonight and this will affect our weather for Saturday as it moves along the Colorado-New Mexico border. We will have at least clouds tomorrow afternoon, and we are right on the northern edge of precipitation. There may be rain showers in the valley and snow showers on the hill by Saturday afternoon and lasting through the evening.

A much larger and more intense storm approaches the Pacific Northwest around mid-weekend after mixing with some cold arctic air. An ejecting wave on Sunday will stay mostly north of our area but will bring the possibility of light showers for the late afternoon and evening.

The parent storm then moves ashore and looks to bring full-on winter conditions to our area on Monday when a cold front passes through and brings favorable wet and cool northwesterly flow over our area. Current forecasts are pointing toward the possibility of as much as 8-16” on Mount Werner by Tuesday morning with 4-8” in the valleys.

Winter weather looks to continue through the work week as periodic waves embedded in moist northwest flow move over the area.

Winter weather returns next week

After another warm and sunny day today, a compact storm crosses the California coast tonight and this may affect our weather for Saturday. We will likely have at least clouds tomorrow afternoon, and we are right on the northern edge of precipitation. There may be light rain showers in the valley and snow showers on the hill by Saturday afternoon.

A much larger and more intense storm approaches the Pacific Northwest around mid-weekend after mixing with some cold arctic air. An ejecting wave on Sunday will stay mostly north of our area but will bring the possibility of light showers for the late afternoon and evening.

The parent storm then moves ashore and looks to bring full-on winter conditions to our area on Monday when a cold front passes through and brings favorable wet and cool northwesterly flow over our area. Current forecasts are pointing toward the possibility of as much as 8-16” by Tuesday morning.

Confidence is increasing that this will be a long duration event comprised of several waves of moderate to heavy snowfall that will last through the entire work week. Furthermore, this will be a cold storm that will bring significant snow to the valleys as well as the mountains and will likely adversely impact I-70 and US-40 at times.

Snow amounts are likely to be impressive by this time next week and could be measured in feet in favored locations.

Steamboat Springs area short term weather forecast from Thursday night

Thursday, March 10, 2016

There may be periods of high clouds, but mostly sunny skies with warm temperatures will prevail for Friday.

A compact storm crosses the California coast around Friday night and this may affect our weather for Saturday. Model trends initially had the storm to our south, but current forecasts have rain showers in the valley and snow showers on the hill by Saturday afternoon. If the storm stays on its current projected track, we may see 1-4” of snow on the hill by Sunday morning.

A much larger and more intense storm approaches the Pacific Northwest around mid-weekend. An ejecting wave on Sunday will stay mostly north of our area but will bring the possibility of light showers for later in the day and evening.

The parent storm then moves ashore and looks to bring full-on winter conditions to our area as soon as Monday. Confidence is increasing that this will be a long duration event comprised of several waves of moderate to heavy snowfall that will last through the work week. Furthermore, this will be a cold storm that will bring significant snow to the valleys and will likely adversely impact I-70 and US-40 at times. Snow amounts are likely to be impressive by this time next week.

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