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Classic Powder Day finally arrives!

Monday, December 15, 2014

Another 13” at 5 am this morning on top of the 4” reported yesterday morning has buried what was left of the Opening Day Ice Crust. In fact there was about 8” of heavy and dense powder by yesterday (Sunday) afternoon with another 10” of very light and dry powder on top of that which fell overnight. Plus, we had some Steamboat Magic this morning with another 3 or 4 inches falling by noon today. Of course, that will be reported tomorrow morning, but it looks like the storm delivered about 20” or 21” of perfect powder to the Steamboat Ski Area.

First run down Norther clued me in to just how good this day was going to be. Though mounds of bumps were visible, they were barely felt as I floated over and between them. An early chair up Four Points lead me to untracked turns down Tornado directly under the Storm Peak liftline, which was as good as you might imagine!

But what really shined was the first run down Closets. Though I was very aware and careful of what lies underneath, the upper 2/3 of the run skied bouncy and effortlessly. The lower third of the run still needed a bit more coverage to completely cover the downed tree hazards, and forced some slower and more deliberate turns.

Hustling back to Storm Peak via Duster and Lower Rainbow lead to another virtually untracked line down Shadows. Since the hazards in the aspen need a bit less snow to cover than in the pine, the lower third skied well. In fact, that run and the next in the same area had me down to Duster before I needed to stop and rest, which is always a sign of great powder skiing.

Still being careful in the trees, great powder shots were found off of West Side, off of Rolex and even Under the Rainbow. Twilight was far more popular with other skiers and boarders, but still had some swaths of untracked as late as noon, especially near the bottom.

And, as I rode Elkhead to return home, I noticed a flood of skiers on Lower Shadows for the first time this season, forcing another ride up Storm Peak to sample the newly opened terrain. Great deep and steep skiing on that pitch; so good in fact that I continued to ski this for another 3 runs. By 2:30 pm, my legs were begging for rest, but not before skiing freshly opened Upper Valley View on the way to the bottom.

More storminess in the forecast for this week, and likely beyond, and just in time for the Christmas visitors.

Pattern change brings snow this weekend

Thursday, December 11, 2014

The current stretch of warm and dry weather looks to change by mid-weekend as a splitting storm currently pummeling California moves eastward. Another nice day on Friday will be followed by increasing cloudiness on Saturday as the storm enters the Great Basin. Precipitation for us may start as early as Saturday afternoon, or may hold off till later Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

The strongest part of the storm will pass to our south, but we should do well in the cool and moist northwest flow behind the main energy center of the storm during the day Sunday. Furthermore, models now have a portion of the northern part of the split storm hanging back over southern Idaho or southwestern Wyoming and enhancing snowfall again by late Sunday night or Monday morning.

Forecasting snow amounts is difficult due to the strongly evolving nature of this storm, but currently I would expect only light snowfall in the 1-4” range to be reported Sunday morning. Periods of moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall will likely occur during the day Sunday and overnight, leading to accumulations of 5-10” by Monday morning. And additional 1-4” will likely fall during the day Monday to be reported Tuesday morning.

After a break Tuesday, the progressive forecast from the American GFS model last week wins out over the forecast from the European ECMWF. Interestingly, this is the second time the this winter the GFS showed superior skill in the medium range, and is something to take note of moving forward.

The progressive forecast moves another splitting storm over our area by midweek. Again, there will be uncertainty with respect to snowfall amounts, but the storm will likely peak around later Wednesday before exiting the area on Thursday. And the storm train will continue with another similar wave timed for the following weekend.

Continued dry and warm until mid-weekend

Monday, December 8, 2014

The current warm and dry pattern will persist through this week. The weak storm for tomorrow mentioned in last week’s forecast will indeed remain to our north and will bring only high clouds to the area.

The next chance of any weather will be mid-weekend as a very strong and warm Pacific storm brings copious moisture to California. Clouds should increase over our area on Saturday, but the storm is forecast to split as it enters the Great Basin, as indicated in last week’s ensemble forecast.

When meteorologists look for clarity in the longer term, the ensemble forecast provides an indication of possible future states of the atmosphere. Basically, a model is initialized with slightly different initial conditions, which can be considered to be the result of small measurement errors. A number of model runs produce an ensemble forecast, and the hope is that the future state of the atmosphere will fall within the range of predicted solutions. Furthermore, the amount of spread between the solutions is representative of the uncertainty of the forecast.

So, even though the operational models last week indicated a big storm for this coming weekend, the ensemble members indicated a possible split in the storm that grew more likely as the week progressed. And, in fact, the operational models are now predicting a split storm that will produce only fair amounts of snow for our area.

There is some cool air associated with the storm, and winds should briefly turn to the northwest behind the front, but this does not look like a big snow producer. Current forecasts have precipitation starting later Saturday and peaking overnight, with snows tapering off during the day Sunday. If I had to guess today, I would expect 3-6” by Sunday afternoon.

There is considerable model disagreement after next weekend as the European ECMWF keeps energy off the west coast and builds a ridge over our area, while the American GFS moves this energy over our area by midweek.

Meager snowfall chances for the next week

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Warm weather and weak storms will doom our snowfall potential through at least next week. The storm for tomorrow has weakened from earlier forecasts and while clouds will increase later today ahead of the wave and remain for tomorrow, I only expect an inch or two by Thursday noon, with rain possible in the valley during the day Wednesday.

Another disappointingly weak wave moves over the area on late Thursday night and Friday, with one model predicting no precipitation and another maybe an inch or two by the end of the day.

A quick-moving and shallow ridge for early Saturday will be followed by another weak storm which will increase clouds later Saturday into Sunday, but current forecasts have this weak storm splitting and weakening further as it enters the west coast, leaving our area precipitation free.

Yet another insignificant and likely precipitation-free wave is timed for around Tuesday, with a building ridge bringing even warmer and still dry weather to our area for later in the workweek.

Weak and warm storms for Sunday, midweek and next weekend

Saturday, November 29, 2014

After some partly sunny days, moisture should increase later tonight and tomorrow ahead of a weak storm that will peak Sunday night or early Monday morning. Areas north of Steamboat will be favored, but only an inch or two is expected to be reported on the hill by Monday morning.

Light snows will end by noon Monday and clouds will decrease through the afternoon, leaving partly cloudy skies for the rest of the day and Tuesday.

A storm currently off the coast of California will move inland and affect our weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Models have trended weaker and warmer with this storm, but it still looks like we will receive not insignificant amounts of snow starting Wednesday afternoon and extending into Thursday. The most favorable time for snow will occur Wednesday night and Thursday morning as there is a subtle wind shift to northwest flow around then, but amounts will be limited by warm temperatures and light wind speeds. Based on the latest model runs, we may see 3-6” between noon Wednesday and noon Thursday.

Several weak and continued warm waves are forecast to follow this storm and pass over the area from Friday through the weekend, keeping the threat of light precipitation present.

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