Sunday, January 12, 2014
Snows did not start until almost report time this morning, about 4 hours later than I had been anticipating. However, the Steamboat magic DID occur as scheduled, with 6” of snow falling between 5am and 9am. Temperatures at Storm Peak Lab fell from about 21F to the current 9F during this time while winds have increased from the northwest and currently average about 28mph with gusts to 45mph up top.
We are currently in moist northwest flow that is now expected to last through much of Tuesday, though snow amounts will be minimal by the end of that day. Since we have already received 7” of snow at mid as of 11am, and I expect periods of moderate to heavy snow to continue through today and especially this evening, I would expect a report tomorrow morning between 10” and 20”. This is consistent with yesterdays forecast of 6”-12” if the 4”-8” I expected by this mornings report is shifted to Monday mornings report.
Snow will continue through Monday with varying intensities, producing another 4-8” by Tuesday morning. Then, snow showers are expected to continue on the hill Tuesday as a trailing wave passes over the area, even as the valleys see some sun. Only 1-4” of new snow is expected during the day Tuesday as the airmass stabilizes and dries.
The west coast ridge is expected to build over our area in earnest on Wednesday, interrupted by a grazing cool and dry wave to our northeast on Thursday. It appears the ridge and its associated warm and dry weather will continue through most of next weekend, keeping mountain slopes warm but valleys cold as temperature inversions reform and persist. Model disagreements by the end of next weekend create uncertainty in the longer range forecast.
Saturday, January 11, 2014
You could take today and place it in April, except for the low sun angle! The difference between today and yesterday was shocking as base temperatures warmed to almost 40F while the top warmed from 14F yesterday afternoon to 24F this afternoon. I believe the wind last night carried the warm air into the snowpack and made the top several inches or half foot heavy and sluggish. This seemed true everywhere in Shadows as the shady aspects skied very similar to the sunny aspects. Still deep pockets of the storm total from the last few days, but these had to be skied deliberately and powerfully.
The trees off of Rolex skied better, though the evergreens in the upper half skied better than the more open Aspen on the lower half. After popping out of the trees, I enjoyed great soft packed powder on the sides of the trail. In fact, that was so good that my last run up top was down Twister below Four Points, and the left side skied great. The snow got heavier and less skied near the bottom, but still good consistent skiing.
I was thinking the lower mountain powder would be even heavier due to the warmer temperatures, but I was wrong! After skiing a very pleasant soft and carveable Lower Vagabond, I noticed some skiers in the powder under the Thunderhead lift kicking up some powder snow, which was NOT happening up top. I figured a poke into the Why Not trees was worth the effort, and I was very pleasantly surprised to find the heavy layer missing. The snow skied a bit heavy since it was so warm, but deep and consistent through the entire turn depth. I had a few minutes before the bus, so I hopped on Christy and ripped some soft GS turns down Sitz and See Ya that left huge trenches in the packed powder. Really fun skiing on a beautiful sunny day!
We are back to winter sometime around midnight tonight, with snow lasting through Monday and maybe even Tuesday before the sun and another false spring returns starting midweek.
Another 9” of snow was reported at mid and top this morning, and skies have partially cleared and temperatures have warmed. The last trough in this very impressive storm cycle arrives around midnight tonight, leading to falling temperatures and moderate to heavy snows. I still expect 4-8” for the morning report, but I expect some Steamboat magic during the morning hours, with lighter but still sometimes moderate snow continuing through Monday as additional impulses of energy periodically increase snowfall rates. I’m raising my initial 4-8” by Monday morning to 6-12”, with still an additional 3-6” during the day and overnight Monday that will be reported Tuesday morning.
Snow showers may hang on for some of Tuesday on the hill, even as the valleys see some sun by the afternoon. The atmosphere then warms and dries as the west coast ridge bring gorgeous weather to our area, though a dry and grazing wave will cool temperatures a bit for Thursday and may bring some high clouds.
We should have a stretch of continuing beautiful days as the ridge is currently forecast to dominate our weather through the early part of the next workweek. Models then struggle with how energy from the Pacific interacts with the ridge, so the forecast for midweek will have to wait until models resolve their differences.
Friday, January 10, 2014
It’s been snowing about an inch per hour the entire day, and at 1pm the Steamboat ski area reported 13” had fallen at mid and top in the last 24 hours. It was a bit windy on the hill, and with winds increasing during the afternoon, conditions evolved through the day. In general and as you might expect, any aspect sheltered by the wind skied better as the afternoon progressed, but the wind was even starting to get into the trees and create some drifting there.
An early run down Shadows skied well, especially the lower half, as did the left side of Lower Shadows. The wind was strong enough to buff Sundown liftline so that it skied very consistently, encouraging high speed and bouncy GS turns for a couple of runs. Even the gully just above Duster was skiing great as many (but not all!) of the rocks were covered. Rolex trees also skied very deep if you could find the untracked lines, and the Aspen near the bottom were sublime.
The lower mountain received similar amounts of snow, so that was skiing great too. A quick run down the middle of Concentration had tons of untracked turns. Vertigo is a smaller trail than Concentration and had less untracked snow, but the skiing was still soft and consistent.
The morning report had 6” at mid and 9” up top, with 3.5” at mid falling overnight. By 9am, and additional 2” of snow had fallen at mid and top, and by 11am, another 3” mid and 1” up top had fallen, and it is currently snowing.
Snowfall should increase again this afternoon as a trailing wave passes over the area, producing another 3-6” of snow. Snowfall will rapidly diminish after midnight as the airmass stabilizes and winds increase. Considering that 5” of new snow has already fallen at mid-mountain between 5am and 11am, I’m expecting tomorrow’s report to be in the 8-12” range.
Snowfall will continue to taper off during Saturday and might even end for a short time during the day and possibly into the evening. Sundays forecast storm has slowed a bit, shifting some of my original 6-12” prediction to after the morning report. So I would expect 4-8” on both Sunday and Monday morning to be reported, with most of the snow for Monday occurring during the day Sunday. Snowfall will be becoming lighter but still persistent starting later Sunday and lasting through midnight Monday before ending, likely adding another 3-6” during the Monday that will be reported Tuesday morning.
Dry air and warming mountain temperatures will overspread the area in earnest later Tuesday into Wednesday with beautiful sunny days and cold valleys due to inversions reforming and strengthening. The grazing wave for Thursday may be even further east than earlier forecast, minimizing any cloudiness associated with it as the western ridge rebounds over our area Friday into the weekend.
There are indications that Pacific storms may weaken the ridge and allow energy to move into the west coast and then over our area later in the weekend or early in the next workweek, but lots of model disagreements at this time.