Seasonably warm and mostly dry before winter returns in about a week
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Even though our weather will be dominated by a ridge producing seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather this weekend and through early next week, how a complicated situation evolves in the eastern Pacific will determine our weather near the end of next week and beyond.
Current models are in agreement with both the trough in the eastern Pacific and the ridge over the western U.S., but differ in how energy moving westward from the western Pacific interacts with the trough.
A wave over northwestern Canada will progress southward bringing some cold air along the Front Range around Tuesday as it travels over the western ridge. Additionally, some energy from the eastern Pacific trough will move through the ridge late Wednesday bringing light showers and seasonably cool air to our area.
The forecast into next weekend is very uncertain. One model brings more energy over the top of the eastern Pacific trough and reinforces the trough carved out by the Wednesday shortwave producing winter weather by late in the weekend or very early in the work week. Another model forecasts far more interaction between these two disturbances, with the northern wave kicking the eastern Pacific trough eastward over our area by late in the week.
However the pattern evolves, both models eventually show winter weather returning to our area, increasing the likelihood of good early season skiing when the Steamboat Ski Area opens for Scholarship Day on Wednesday, Nov. 27th in 2 1/2 weeks.
Dry pattern looks to persist for a week
Thursday, November 7, 2013
After a beautiful day today, a weak wave passes to our north on Friday, increasing clouds but likely yielding no or very light precipitation.
A second wave takes a far more western track and digs southward off the coast of California, pumping up a ridge over the Great Basin that should yield dry and warm seasonal temperatures through Monday.
The evolution of the the trough off the west coast will determine our weather mid-week, and models are struggling with the details. Currently, some energy is forecast to split from this digging wave off the coast and travel over the ridge before bringing cold air southward along the Front Range on Tuesday. Concurrently, some energy is ejected from the trough and travels over us late Wenesday or early Thursday, producing light precipitation.
Models are in disagreement with the pattern after this with regards to the trough of the west coast, with one keeping most of the energy off the coast and the other bringing it inland.
50 inches of base at the top of Sunshine Peak at the Steamboat Ski Area
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Another 3” of low water content snow was on my deck by this by 9am morning and should be the final deposit from this departing storm. Observations from the top of the Sunshine lift near Patrol Headquarters had just under 50” yesterday morning, and I expect that mark to be exceeded today.
A building ridge will produce moderating temperatures and dry weather through the weekend and likely most of next week. Weak waves do pass north of our area on Friday and again mid-week, but high clouds will likely be their only affect on our weather.
Models seem to be generally agreeing that the mid-week wave begins the process of moving the ridge eastward and allowing colder air to filter over the west coast. As is usually the case this far out, confidence is low, especially when the weather patterns are forecast to change significantly.
Storm cycle ends with seasonal weather returning by Thursday
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Another 5.5” of fluffy snow was on my deck by this morning as the impressive winter-like storm departs.
Wednesday will be cold with our area susceptible to showers in the cold, but rapidly drying northwest flow as a trailing wave moves over the area.
A building ridge will produce moderating temperatures and dry weather through the weekend and likely most of next week. Weak waves do pass north of our area on Friday and again next Tuesday, but high clouds will likely be their only affect on our weather.
Models do forecast a large storm off the west coast after mid-month that is forecast to eventually influence this ridge, but the forecast pattern is around 10 days away and confidence in a solution that far in the future is low.
Snow to redevelop this afternoon as the winter-like storm continues
Monday, November 4, 2013
The first wave brought about 6.5” of snow on my deck by this morning as strong southerly flow overran the cold front that moved through the area late in the afternoon yesterday.
After a break early today, light precipitation will begin again by the late afternoon and grow heavier as upward motion from the main part of the storm still situated to our west begins to affect the area.
The bulk of the precipitation will fall overnight and snowfall will be decreasing during the day Tuesday after producing another 4-8” of snow. Strong vertical forcing looks to create precipitation bands which are difficult to localize but will produce moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Temperatures should fall to the coldest levels of the season as skies clear behind the main part of the departing storm.
Wednesday will be cold with our area susceptible to showers in the cold, but rapidly drying northwest flow as a trailing wave moves over the area.
A building ridge should produce a beautiful Thursday. The storm for next weekend looks to be weakening and accelerating so that only light showers are expected on Friday. Seasonal temperatures and dry weather is forecast for the weekend.
