Significant precipitation still on track for the weekend

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

A weak wave moving over our area tonight will produce some slight cooling and possibly light precipitation by the morning. A second wave now looks to impact our area by later Friday followed by a much stronger and colder third wave Saturday night.

While all models predict some precipitation by Saturday morning, subtle differences between them create uncertainty for our area. Specifically, 1-3” is expected on the hill by Saturday morning unless the winds turn northwest behind the first wave, in which case I would expect 3-6”.

A front stalls over our area between these two waves leading to cool and showery precipitation early in the day Saturday. As the trough to our west begins to move eastward, the stalled front will begin moving south around sunset, increasing precipitation and decreasing temperatures during late afternoon and continuing through the night.

I would expect this thrid wave to bring significant precipitation by Sunday morning. The trough is expected to bring favorable mountain-top northwest flow to our area by early Sunday, enhancing snowfall rates, especially near sunrise. The storm will grow colder as it evolves from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, so snow densities will be decreasing, increasing the snow quality. I would guess a very tentative 6-12” or more by Sunday afternoon on the hill.

Monday morning will be dry but seasonably cold, with rapidly warming conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another dry and weak storm is currently forecast later around midweek, and possibly some interesting weather by next weekend as cold air is predicted to be lurking just to our north.

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