Friday, March 7, 2014
The Steamboat ski area reported 2” mid / 1” top this morning, and the 11 am report had an additional 2” mid / 2.5” top. Light snow should continue today and taper off this evening as a lobe of energy passes over the area early this afternoon. I expect 3-7” to be reported by Saturday morning before skies clear.
A transient ridge then builds over our area for the weekend bringing beautiful sunny and warm spring-like weather, likely lasting through Monday. The next Pacific storm is very similar to the current one and affects our area by Tuesday. However, some cold air rotating around the persistent Hudson Bay vortex is forecast to phase with this storm around Monday creating a colder and more dynamic system. The evolution of this storm will be very dependent upon the amount of cold air entrained, and details should become clearer as we move closer to the event.
Current forecasts have light snow starting as early as Tuesday morning and intensifying during the day as the storm moves closer. This storm again splits around us by Tuesday night, but snow or snow showers are likely to continue through the day Wednesday. A break in snow will occur on Thursday before another fast moving wave is forecast to bring showers into our area by late Friday.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
The Steamboat ski area reported 3” mid / 5” top this morning, though once again the 5am phone report was not available until the 9am update. This also happened on Jan. 1st, which was another Wednesday, and this points to snow reporter Kelly not doing his job!
I believe Laurie does the morning report Sunday - Tuesday, and she is excellent in providing consistent and timely reports. Kelly is responsible for midweek and Mike also is relatively consistent in his reports to finish out the week. But Kelly not only occasionally fails to update the report, but often is late compared to the others when it is eventually recorded. I think he needs to set a couple of alarms 45 minutes earlier!
With that off my chest, the storm forecast for Friday has accelerated a bit, though the split is still likely to occur. Precipitation is now forecast to begin Thursday late in the day or evening and continue through Friday before ending early Saturday. Details are still changing as a it is not yet clear how much energy passes over us as compared to west of us. I still expect 3-6” during the day Friday, but 1-4” may fall overnight Thursday for the Friday morning report. Perhaps another several inches for Friday night will lead to a 4-8” report for Saturday morning.
Skies should rapidly clear Saturday morning leading to a warmer and sunny Saturday afternoon and Sunday. The next very similar storm is forecast to produce precipitation over our area as early as Tuesday and continuing through the day Wednesday.
There is a fair bit of uncertainty in the long-range models for the weather that occurs after next weeks midweek storm. The European model keeps a progressive flow over our area with another storm timed for the end of the week while the American model tends to build the west coast ridge with a much weaker end-of-week storm.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
A well-defined but quick moving wave will allow periods of moderate snowfall to develop late this afternoon and last through the evening. Snows will lighten and turn showery around midnight, but continue into the early morning hours before ending. I expect 4-8” of snow by Wednesday morning before skies mostly clear and temperatures warm for later Wednesday and Thursday.
Another stronger and more organized wave creates heavy precipitation starting along the northwest coast Wednesday and affects our area by Thursday night. However, current model forecasts have this wave splitting as it moves over our area, and model trends indicate the bulk of the storm may pass west and then south of us. Nonetheless, precipitation will begin early Friday and last through Saturday, but due to the splitting flow, I might expect only 3-6” during Friday which will be reported Saturday morning. An additional 1-3” may fall during the day Saturday before a transient ridge containing warm and dry air moves over our area for Sunday.
Another very similar storm may affect our area early the following week, though this one may have more cold air associated with it as it phases with another wave from the north rotating around the ever-present-for-this-winter Hudson Bay vortex. This storm currently is forecast to produce significant precipitation for our area from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, though that forecast is dependent upon the amount of splitting the storm endures as it moves over our area.
Monday, March 3, 2014
A small wave in northwest flow moved over our area this morning with insignificant precipitation, and I expect periods of sun today, though some light showers may persist, especially on the hill. However, a stronger but quick moving wave will allow periods of moderate snowfall to develop tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Showers will continue past midnight into the early morning hours, though they weaken and eventually end early in the day. I expect 5-10” of snow by Wednesday morning before skies mostly clear for later Wednesday and Thursday.
Another stronger and more organized wave crosses the northwestern coast late Wednesday and affects our area by Thursday night. Current model forecasts have this wave splitting as it moves over our area, but I would still expect significant accumulations between Thursday night and midday Friday, perhaps in the 6-12” range. Additional energy behind the main wave will keep lighter snow for our area going through Saturday before a transient ridge containing warm and dry air moves over our area for the second half of the weekend.
Another similar storm may affect our area early the following week, though this one may have more cold air associated with it as it phases with another wave from the north rotating around the ever-present-for-this-winter Hudson Bay vortex. Current longer-range models disagree with the details of this storm, which is to be expected with its impacts over a week away.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
The storm was just a bit too far east of us today to produce more than this morning’s rain in the valley and 2.5” mid / 3” top. In fact, it was a mostly sunny, but windy day as dry air right on the edge of the storm moved over us today.
As the storm moves eastward from southern California overnight and into tomorrow, current model trends have kept this storm further south, decreasing our impacts. We still have some cool air aloft tonight and through tomorrow. so I may expect 3-6” by tomorrow morning (with some of that falling this morning) with an additional 1-4” during the day tomorrow in continued showers.
Showers will diminish, but not completely end on Monday as additional weak waves in northwest flow travel over our area, and these continue but grow weaker on Tuesday. However, by Tuesday night some models show a more substantial but still quick-moving wave that may produce some significant snow for Wednesday morning.
A quick warm up with mostly sunny skies is forecast for later Wednesday into Thursday morning before another storm is forecast for late Thursday or Friday.