Monsoonal surge from midweek through mid-weekend followed by drying

Monday, June 27, 2016

The current hot and dry conditions will transition to a wetter flow by midweek as this season’s first monsoonal moisture surge encroaches over the Steamboat Springs area.

A wave that had been moving from the east in the tropical flow across central Mexico this past week will be absorbed in the southwest flow on the western periphery of the Great Basin ridge tomorrow. After another hot day on Tuesday, with only a slight chance of afternoon storms that will bring more wind than rain if they do occur, humidity will noticeably increase on Wednesday as that wave to our west crosses Utah.

Afternoon showers will become more likely by Wednesday, with some lingering overnight in the moist environment. A cool front from energy traveling around a branch of the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay will graze northern Colorado and be the focus of more rainfall for Thursday as it interacts with the still moist atmosphere.

Additional waves from the south will keep humidity high and the chance of afternoon storms around for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday. Interestingly, a still strong westerly jet stream moving across the Pacific will move another storm to the Northwest coast by Sunday. While models have this storm staying mostly north of us on Monday, drier air filters into our region as soon as later Sunday.

Furthermore, the strong westerly winds from this storm will bring breezy to windy conditions to our area around the Fourth of July and cut off the flow of monsoon moisture from the south through at least midweek. There may also be a cool front, currently timed for Tuesday, that will knock temperatures back to normal on that day.

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