Storm about 4 hour late, but it’s here now

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Snows did not start until almost report time this morning, about 4 hours later than I had been anticipating. However, the Steamboat magic DID occur as scheduled, with 6” of snow falling between 5am and 9am. Temperatures at Storm Peak Lab fell from about 21F to the current 9F during this time while winds have increased from the northwest and currently average about 28mph with gusts to 45mph up top.

We are currently in moist northwest flow that is now expected to last through much of Tuesday, though snow amounts will be minimal by the end of that day. Since we have already received 7” of snow at mid as of 11am, and I expect periods of moderate to heavy snow to continue through today and especially this evening, I would expect a report tomorrow morning between 10” and 20”. This is consistent with yesterdays forecast of 6”-12” if the 4”-8” I expected by this mornings report is shifted to Monday mornings report.

Snow will continue through Monday with varying intensities, producing another 4-8” by Tuesday morning. Then, snow showers are expected to continue on the hill Tuesday as a trailing wave passes over the area, even as the valleys see some sun. Only 1-4” of new snow is expected during the day Tuesday as the airmass stabilizes and dries.

The west coast ridge is expected to build over our area in earnest on Wednesday, interrupted by a grazing cool and dry wave to our northeast on Thursday. It appears the ridge and its associated warm and dry weather will continue through most of next weekend, keeping mountain slopes warm but valleys cold as temperature inversions reform and persist. Model disagreements by the end of next weekend create uncertainty in the longer range forecast.

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