Pattern change delayed until later Sunday
Thursday, November 13, 2025
Another spectacular fall day is over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures just above sixty degrees, fifteen degrees above average. A storm to our north will bring some breezes on Friday and passing clouds on Saturday, along with a few degrees of cooling to start the weekend. By later Sunday, the pattern change that was earlier expected as early as Friday finally arrives, with increasing clouds during the day and showers by the afternoon or evening.
Fall and spring storms can be difficult to forecast as cold air is rapidly forming in the northern latitudes while warm air still resides in the southern latitudes. One or the other will dominate, though subtle differences in the atmospheric flows eventually dictate the outcome. This storm ended up slowing and splitting compared to the weather model guidance used in last Sunday’s weather narrative, delaying the anticipated pattern change and bringing another several days of very pleasant fall weather.
The northern end of the storm is forecast to traverse the Northern Rockies on Friday, bringing increased westerly breezes in the afternoon, but leaving our high temperatures untouched and in the lower sixties. The grazing storm will knock high temperatures back several degrees into the high fifties on Saturday, still around fifteen degrees above our rapidly falling average of forty-three degrees, along with some passing clouds.
Meanwhile, the southern end of the split storm will be forced eastward across southern California Saturday night by a new storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and accelerate northeastward across the Great Basin during Sunday. There is still uncertainty regarding the onset of precipitation, but we can expect a mostly cloudy day with increasing chances of showers, possibly as early as noon or as late as the evening.
Due to its southern trajectory, the storm will be warm, with rain in town and snow levels starting near 10,000′ early Sunday and declining to around 7,500′ by early Monday. Precipitation should taper off during the day, with current forecasts indicating about a third of an inch of rain in town and 3-6” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Area by Monday afternoon.
The developing Gulf of Alaska storm is then forecast to cross the West Coast on Monday, with its evolution and path as it moves eastward uncertain. Be sure to take advantage of what may be our last stretch of beautiful fall weather, and I’ll have more details on what to expect next week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. And remember, please join me on Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm at the Bud Werner Memorial Library, where I’ll be discussing how I use the SnowAlarm website to forecast the weather.
