Moderate snow Saturday night ahead of a new storm cycle midweek

Thursday, January 4, 2018

The atmospheric see-saw over North America discussed in Sundays’s forecast looks to finally change it’s tilt this weekend as incoming Pacific energy moves the western ridge of high pressure eastward, dislodging the bitterly cold air now plaguing the eastern two thirds of the country.

The Steamboat Springs area will see another mostly sunny today today and chilly morning Friday as the high pressure over the western U.S. translates over the Rockies. Clouds will increase starting later Friday as some moisture moves through the ridge, with a slight chance of light snow showers in the afternoon and evening.

A brief break in the moisture stream may allow the sun to reappear Saturday morning, but clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of the storm forecast for Saturday night. We have northwest flow, moisture and cold air, so moderate snow is likely. The storm structure is still changing in the weather forecast models, and it is not clear at this point how organized the storm will be as it crosses through Colorado., with some models indicating more of a split in the storm as it crosses our area.

At this point, I would expect 4-8” of snow by the Sunday morning report, with light snow showers continuing Sunday morning and producing another inch or two of accumulations. There could be more if the storm stays more organized, or less if the split is more severe.

Another ridge of high pressure moves across our area from later Sunday through Tuesday bringing unseasonably warm daytime temperatures back to the west, though afternoon highs and overnight lows may be tempered by moisture moving through the ridge on Monday night and Tuesday.

This moisture is ahead of a strong and likely significant storm forecast to cross the West Coast later Tuesday. There is lots of uncertainty with respect to the storm structure as well as how much cold air from the northern latitudes mixes with the storm, but right now warm snow showers are advertised starting Wednesday followed by increasing snows Wednesday night as cold air washes over northern Colorado.

Snows may continue for most of the day Thursday before the main part of the storm moves west, though it is not clear if some energy will be left behind for continued unsettled weather on Friday. If the current weather forecast models are to be believed, another ridge of high pressure brings nicer weather to the west for next weekend.

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  1. John Reynolds

    Thursday, January 4, 2018 - 17:39:43

    Mike,
    When you forecast snow amounts e.g. 4-8 inches. Are you referring to what you expect in the valley or at some elevation on the mountain? Or does that mean 4 inches in the valley and 8 inches at the top?

  2. SnowAlarmer (http://snowalarm.com/blog/)

    Thursday, January 4, 2018 - 17:51:00

    John,
    My forecast is for the officially measured mid-mountain snowfall, unless I state otherwise. The 4-8” is a forecast range for that one location.

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