Small storms Friday and mid-weekend followed by large early week storm

Thursday, January 19, 2017

A weakening Pacific storm will move over the Steamboat Springs area in pieces tonight and Friday. Snow showers should begin around mid-evening and persist overnight and most of tomorrow. I would expect 1-3” on the Friday morning report, and even though showers should intensify in the morning as the flow briefly veers to the northwest, I would expect only another 1-3” during the day which will be reported on the Saturday morning report.

A stronger and colder second storm crosses the West Coast on Friday and splits, with the southern piece traveling southeastward through the Great Basin on Saturday. There may be a break in precipitation over our area from Friday night through Saturday morning, and even though the bulk of this storm will stay to our west and southwest, ¬†snow showers are likely from Saturday through Sunday afternoons. I think we will do a little better from this second storm as the temperatures are cooler and the northwest flow behind the front is stronger, and I expect 2-4” for the Sunday morning report and another 1-3” during the day.

Meanwhile another strong wave in the energetic Pacific jet stream phases with the remaining northern piece of the second storm in the Gulf of Alaska and forms the strongest storm of the three. The storm will begin affecting the West Coast later Saturday before it crosses the coast overnight and brings snow showers to the Continental Divide as early as Sunday night.

Breezy to windy southwest flow will increase by Monday morning as temperatures begin to cool, and moderate to heavy showers are expected during the day Monday. Snow amounts are always difficult to forecast under these conditions as the heaviest snowfall often occurs in bands, but significant accumulations are possible in this warm sector of the storm.

By Monday evening, more Pacific Northwest energy drops into the back of the storm and causes it to split, with the northern part of the split forming a closed circulation over southern Wyoming and the southern portion traveling south towards Baja.

A strong cold front associated with this closed circulation will move over the Steamboat Springs area later Monday, veering mountain-top winds to our favorable northwest direction and bringing a period moderate to heavy snows that will last overnight and through the first part of Tuesday before decreasing in intensity by late in the day. I would expect significant accumulations by the Tuesday morning report, with amounts dependent upon the evolution of the closed circulation.

Though snows will decrease, snow showers will likely not end until late in the work week as the Baja part of this storm loiters to our southwest and encourages additional waves of cold and moist air to move southward from the Northwest and western Canada. As a result, I would expect new snow to be reported Wednesday and Thursday mornings as well.

It does look like this cold and snowy week will be followed by a building West Coast ridge which should bring warmer and drier weather heading into the following weekend.

 

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