Wet weather gradually dries through the long weekend

Friday, July 1, 2016

A wave moving across the well-established monsoon moisture plume currently over Colorado will keep showers going through at least the first half of the night. This wave is strong enough to bring mountain-top northwest flow by tonight which may allow for some drying by early Saturday as the deepest moisture is pushed south behind the departing wave. However, Saturday afternoon storms, possibly strong, will be likely in the still moist and unstable airmass.

By Sunday, moisture erodes further for a drier morning courtesy of a Pacific Northwest storm approaching the coast. But another wave is kicked across Colorado Sunday afternoon by the Pacific storm, and this will again lead to the chance of afternoon storms, possibly strong.

Even though moisture erodes further for Monday, yet another weak wave is forced eastward across Colorado as the Pacific Northwest storm crosses the coast near the Canadian border, and this will again lead the possibility of afternoon storms, though weaker and less numerous than the weekend.

Much drier air overspreads the area on Tuesday and Wednesday accompanied by seasonal temperatures for a very pleasant couple of days.

By Thursday and into Friday, a tropical wave moving from east to west across the Mexican plateau early in the week will travel over our area in continued southwest flow, similar to how the current monsoon event started this past Wednesday. This may again lead to a couple of wet days, though there is model disagreement as to to the duration and depth of this moisture, with the ECMWF being less aggressive than the GFS. In any case, another Pacific Northwest storm looks to make landfall near the end of the work week and westerly flow will cut off the moisture plume by the weekend as the storm moves inland.