Very wet Wednesday and Thursday before weekend drying

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

As discussed in last Thursday’s forecast, the monsoon pattern has been reinvigorated by southerly flow around the west side of the strong western ridge and will produce very wet conditions for our area later Wednesday through Thursday. Before that, another beautiful summer day is on tap for today with some more clouds than yesterday, especially in the afternoon, but with any precipitation staying likely staying south of us until tomorrow.

A subtropical wave currently over the Arizona - Mexico border is forecast to move first northward and then northeastward as it approaches our area tomorrow. This wave will be accompanied by very moist air and rain showers will likely begin ahead of this wave around noon or early afternoon tomorrow. Showers will increase and transition to periods of very heavy rain by later in the afternoon as this first wave moves over our area sometime Wednesday evening.

Coincidentally, a large area of low pressure currently over the northwest coast will move eastward, and it appears some of this energy will be absorbed by a second subtropical wave from the south, keeping the likelihood of continued heavy rain over our area for Thursday.

Conditions improve considerably by Friday as the subtropical wave moves to our east, but plenty of moisture left behind will fuel afternoon storms on Friday. By Saturday, the northwest low, still well north of us, moves eastward, bringing a much drier westerly flow over our area. There will be a chance of storms Saturday and Sunday afternoons as there will still be lingering moisture, but the westerly flow is forecast to end the monsoonal pattern for a while, bringing classic beautiful late summer weather to our area for the following workweek.

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