Forecast drier for the end of the work week, but colder and wetter by Sunday

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Signficant changes in the American GFS model over the last few runs has brought the model forecast closer to the European ECMWF forecast. The end result is that light precipitation won’t begin till Friday and a possibly significant winter-like storm develops by Sunday.

The first wave I was expecting to produce precipitation by Thursday morning looks drier and weaker and will likely only produce some slight cooling over our area. The second wave originally timed for Thursday night looks to hold off for 12-24 hours creating only light precipitation by late in the day Friday or overnight.

Weather will be seasonably cool and showery during the day Saturday as a strong wave amplifies along the west coast. Originally, the American GFS model has this wave traveling over the area as a much weaker and faster system, but the last few runs now agree with the European ECMWF model that the system will be much stronger and slower.

If the storm does not dig further to our west in subsequent model runs, I would expect the storm affect our area by Saturday evening and bring signficant precipitation by Sunday morning. The trough is expected to bring favorable mountain-top northwest flow to our area sometime on Sunday, enhancing snowfall rates, expecially near sunset. The storm will grow colder as it evolves from Saturday night through Monday morning, so snow densities will be decreasing, increasing the snow quality. I would guess a very tentative 6-12” or more by Monday morning on the hill.

The trough should be east of us by Monday morning, fringing rapidly warming and dry conditions through the rest of the week.

Another storm is currently forecast for the following weekend, but there is much uncertainty in the forecast for THIS weekend, much less NEXT weekend!

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