Seasonably warm and mostly dry before winter returns in about a week

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Even though our weather will be dominated by a ridge producing seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather this weekend and through early next week, how a complicated situation evolves in the eastern Pacific will determine our weather near the end of next week and beyond.

Current models are in agreement with both the trough in the eastern Pacific and the ridge over the western U.S., but differ in how energy moving westward from the western Pacific interacts with the trough.

A wave over northwestern Canada will progress southward bringing some cold air along the Front Range around Tuesday as it travels over the western ridge. Additionally, some energy from the eastern Pacific trough will move through the ridge late Wednesday bringing light showers and seasonably cool air to our area.

The forecast into next weekend is very uncertain. One model brings more energy over the top of the eastern Pacific trough and reinforces the trough carved out by the Wednesday shortwave producing winter weather by late in the weekend or very early in the work week. Another model forecasts far more interaction between these two disturbances, with the northern wave kicking the eastern Pacific trough eastward over our area by late in the week.

However the pattern evolves, both models eventually show winter weather returning to our area, increasing the likelihood of good early season skiing when the Steamboat Ski Area opens for Scholarship Day on Wednesday, Nov. 27th in 2 1/2 weeks.

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